SD Dojavi
OSMRTNICE
PRETPLATA
PREMIUM
stdClass Object ( [id] => 1011442 [title] => Što ako pandemija ne prestane na ljeto, nego potraje? Nismo mirni dok zadnja osoba ne bude izliječena, morat ćemo se prilagoditi drugačijem životu [alias] => sto-ako-pandemija-ne-prestane-na-ljeto-nego-potraje-nismo-mirni-dok-zadnja-osoba-ne-bude-izlijecena-morat-cemo-se-prilagoditi-drugacijem-zivotu [catid] => 241 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

A što ako sve ovo potraje?

Što ako COVID-19 sa prvim danima ljeta ne nestane? Što ako i nakon toga mjesecima ostanemo zatvoreni u kućama? Što ako ne prorade škole, uredi, kina i kazališta? Ako se ne nastave sportska prvenstva, ako ne bude turističke sezone, ako oni koji ne ostanu bez posla nastave raditi iz svojih domova?

Što ako drugim riječima život nastavi stajati? Morat ćemo se prilagoditi, tvrde to znanstvenici Kraljevskog koledža u Londonu.

Kina je, doduše, u karanteni koja je u Wuhanu trajala 6 tjedana uspjela drastično smanjiti broj oboljelih. Smanjiti, no ne i iskorijeniti. Jer svaki novi pridošlica iz Europe i SAD-a potencijalni je širitelj novoga vala zaraze.

Nećemo dakle biti mirni sve dok i zadnji zaraženi ne bude izliječen. Ili, što je vjerojatnije, dok ne otkriju dovoljno djelotvorno cjepivo. Za to će, prema grubim procjenama, trebati 18 mjeseci.

Zato londonski znanstvenici imaju jedan prijedlog. Svaki put kada broj zaraženih u jedinicama intenzivne skrbi u bolnicama naraste, vlasti trebaju pojačati karantenske mjere. Zatvoriti škole, stadione, kina, kazališta. Svaki put kada se on smanji, mogu malo popustiti.

Njihove projekcije su pokazale da bi se ovakav ritam mogao odvijati u omjerima 2/3 prema jednoj trećini. Dakle dva mjeseca karantene, jedan mjesec bez nje. Kako bi ljudi i ekonomija preživljeli do studenog 2021., do kada bi cjepivo moglo biti u upotrebi.

Je li jednostavnije u tih 18 mjeseci izgladiti dovoljno kapaciteta na jedinicama intenzivne njege, kako bi svi oboljeli mogli biti izliječeni? Sudeći po rezultatima do kojih su došli britanski znanstvenici, time se uopće ne bi izbjegao kolaps zdravstvenog sustava, jer bi broj oboljelih bez strogih mjera fizičkog razmaka bio osam puta veći nego je trenutno u Velikoj Britaniji i SAD-u.

Ako su ove procjene točne, svijet će se morati priviknuti živjeti sa pandemijom. 

Na rok puno dulji od onog kojeg smo isprva očekivali.

Neke od katastrofičnih prognoza upozoravaju da ćemo biti u opasnosti i nakon što se otkrije cjepivo. COVID-19 će mutirati. Prilagoditi se. I zadati nam nove glavobolje.

Deseci tisuća mrtvih zbog ovoga koronavirusa. Deseci tisuća mrtvih zbog njegove iduće mutacije. Plus novozaraženi nakon što mjere karantene malo popuste. Pitanje je ima li tome uopće kraja.

Moguće da ćemo se svi morati priviknuti na školu kod kuće. Na rad iz vlastitog doma. Na vježbanje na balkonu, ne u teretani. Na gledanje filmova iz kućnih naslonjača, ne u kinu. Na praćenje opere preko videolinka, ne u kazalištu. Na radikalno ograničenje putovanja.

Na život u vlastitom dnevnom boravku.

Svijet se kroz povijest drastično mijenjao već puno puta do sada. Možda upravo svjedočimo jednoj njegovoj novoj, velikoj i radikalnoj promjeni.

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A što ako sve ovo potraje?

Što ako COVID-19 sa prvim danima ljeta ne nestane? Što ako i nakon toga mjesecima ostanemo zatvoreni u kućama? Što ako ne prorade škole, uredi, kina i kazališta? Ako se ne nastave sportska prvenstva, ako ne bude turističke sezone, ako oni koji ne ostanu bez posla nastave raditi iz svojih domova?

Što ako drugim riječima život nastavi stajati? Morat ćemo se prilagoditi, tvrde to znanstvenici Kraljevskog koledža u Londonu.

Kina je, doduše, u karanteni koja je u Wuhanu trajala 6 tjedana uspjela drastično smanjiti broj oboljelih. Smanjiti, no ne i iskorijeniti. Jer svaki novi pridošlica iz Europe i SAD-a potencijalni je širitelj novoga vala zaraze.

Nećemo dakle biti mirni sve dok i zadnji zaraženi ne bude izliječen. Ili, što je vjerojatnije, dok ne otkriju dovoljno djelotvorno cjepivo. Za to će, prema grubim procjenama, trebati 18 mjeseci.

Zato londonski znanstvenici imaju jedan prijedlog. Svaki put kada broj zaraženih u jedinicama intenzivne skrbi u bolnicama naraste, vlasti trebaju pojačati karantenske mjere. Zatvoriti škole, stadione, kina, kazališta. Svaki put kada se on smanji, mogu malo popustiti.

Njihove projekcije su pokazale da bi se ovakav ritam mogao odvijati u omjerima 2/3 prema jednoj trećini. Dakle dva mjeseca karantene, jedan mjesec bez nje. Kako bi ljudi i ekonomija preživljeli do studenog 2021., do kada bi cjepivo moglo biti u upotrebi.

Je li jednostavnije u tih 18 mjeseci izgladiti dovoljno kapaciteta na jedinicama intenzivne njege, kako bi svi oboljeli mogli biti izliječeni? Sudeći po rezultatima do kojih su došli britanski znanstvenici, time se uopće ne bi izbjegao kolaps zdravstvenog sustava, jer bi broj oboljelih bez strogih mjera fizičkog razmaka bio osam puta veći nego je trenutno u Velikoj Britaniji i SAD-u.

Ako su ove procjene točne, svijet će se morati priviknuti živjeti sa pandemijom. 

Na rok puno dulji od onog kojeg smo isprva očekivali.

Neke od katastrofičnih prognoza upozoravaju da ćemo biti u opasnosti i nakon što se otkrije cjepivo. COVID-19 će mutirati. Prilagoditi se. I zadati nam nove glavobolje.

Deseci tisuća mrtvih zbog ovoga koronavirusa. Deseci tisuća mrtvih zbog njegove iduće mutacije. Plus novozaraženi nakon što mjere karantene malo popuste. Pitanje je ima li tome uopće kraja.

Moguće da ćemo se svi morati priviknuti na školu kod kuće. Na rad iz vlastitog doma. Na vježbanje na balkonu, ne u teretani. Na gledanje filmova iz kućnih naslonjača, ne u kinu. Na praćenje opere preko videolinka, ne u kazalištu. Na radikalno ograničenje putovanja.

Na život u vlastitom dnevnom boravku.

Svijet se kroz povijest drastično mijenjao već puno puta do sada. Možda upravo svjedočimo jednoj njegovoj novoj, velikoj i radikalnoj promjeni.

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Daniel Leal-olivas/AFP Ed Jones/AFP Greg Baker/AFP Sergei Supinsky/AFP
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StoryEditorOCM
Svijetneki novi svijet

Što ako pandemija ne prestane na ljeto, nego potraje? Nismo mirni dok zadnja osoba ne bude izliječena, morat ćemo se prilagoditi drugačijem životu

Piše Marina Karlović Sabolić
24. ožujka 2020. - 14:30
13304382
PREMIUM
Galerija
Daniel Leal-olivas/AFP

A što ako sve ovo potraje?

Što ako COVID-19 sa prvim danima ljeta ne nestane? Što ako i nakon toga mjesecima ostanemo zatvoreni u kućama? Što ako ne prorade škole, uredi, kina i kazališta? Ako se ne nastave sportska prvenstva, ako ne bude turističke sezone, ako oni koji ne ostanu bez posla nastave raditi iz svojih domova?

Što ako drugim riječima život nastavi stajati? Morat ćemo se prilagoditi, tvrde to znanstvenici Kraljevskog koledža u Londonu.

Kina je, doduše, u karanteni koja je u Wuhanu trajala 6 tjedana uspjela drastično smanjiti broj oboljelih. Smanjiti, no ne i iskorijeniti. Jer svaki novi pridošlica iz Europe i SAD-a potencijalni je širitelj novoga vala zaraze.

Nećemo dakle biti mirni sve dok i zadnji zaraženi ne bude izliječen. Ili, što je vjerojatnije, dok...

#KORONAVIRUS#KARANTENA#POSLJEDICE KORONAVIRUSA
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18. svibanj 2024 18:48