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Prvi stadij kineske rakete Changzheng 5B (Dugi marš 5B) past će na Zemlju ove subote ili nedjelje, a stručnjaci procjenjuju kako bi čak pet do devet tona dijelova ove 23 tona teške rakete moglo preživjeti izgaranje u atmosferi i uzrokovati materijalnu štetu ili ljudsko stradanje prilikom udara u tlo, piše Jutarnji.

Prema najnovijim procjenama stručnjaka iz tvrtke Aerospace Corporation, objavljenim u petak, kineska raketa trebala bi pasti na Zemlju oko 2,24h u noći sa subote na nedjelju po našem vremenu, no kako se radi o nekontroliranom ulasku u atmosferu, moguće je da do konačnog udara dođe i do 16 sati prije ili kasnije.

Ovog vikenda na Zemlju će se strmoglaviti kineska raketa teška 23 tone: nitko ne zna gdje će pasti, moguće su ljudske žrtve

Za razliku od većine suvremenih raketa koje zapadne države i Rusija koriste za lansiranje tereta u orbitu oko Zemlje, kineske Dugi marš 5B rakete svoj let završavaju u niskoj, nestabilnoj orbiti, te nemaju mogućnost kontroliranog ulaska u atmosferu koji bi osigurao da raketa padne u ocean ili na nenaseljeno područje.

Kineske rakete završe izvan kontrole, te polagano gube brzinu u najvišim slojevima atmosfere do točke gdje više ne mogu održavati orbitu. Taj je trenutak teško procijeniti jer ovisi o nizu nepredvidljivih faktora - od položaja rakete do temperature zraka, zbog koje se atmosfera širi ili sužava.

Iako su šanse da će netko biti ozlijeđen relativno niske - između 0,1 i 0,4 posto - prvo lansiranje rakete Dugi marš 5B u svibnju prošle godine završilo je padom metalnih komada na dva sela u Obali Bjelokosti, koji su oštetili nekolicinu kuća. Najmanje jedan dio bila je masivna čelična cijev, 12 metara duga, najvjerojatnije dio dovoda goriva.

Analitičari procjenjuju kako bi do devet tona materijala iz rakete moglo preživjeti ulazak u atmosferu i predstavljati opasnost po ljude i imovinu. Pri ulasku najčešće izgori oplata rakete i raspadne se najveći spremnik s gorivom, no manji i srednji spremnici - teški nekoliko tona i široki nekoliko metara - redovito padnu na tlo u jednom komadu. Ulazak bi mogli preživjeti i dijelovi masivnih raketnih motora.

Ako su stručnjaci točno procijenili vrijeme pada, raketa bi pala na sjevernom dijelu Arapskog poluotoka, na potezu od Egipta, preko Izraela i Jordana do Iraka, Irana i Turkmenistana. Njena putanja dalje ju ponovno vodi oko Zemlje, te bi se 90 minuta kasnije našla iznad Turske.

Još devedeset minuta i jednu orbitu kasnije, putanja raketu vodi iznad Sicilije, juga Italije i Grčke, a u sljedećoj orbiti, ukupno 270 minuta nakon procijenjenog trenutka pada, raketa će prelijetati središnji dio Italije, Albaniju i Sjevernu Makedoniju. Ako dođe do pada u jednom od posljednja dva navedena preleta, pad i izgaranje rakete gotovo će sigurno biti vidljivi iz Hrvatske.

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Raketa Changzheng 5B
 

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Raketa Changzheng 5B
 

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Prvi stadij kineske rakete Changzheng 5B (Dugi marš 5B) past će na Zemlju ove subote ili nedjelje, a stručnjaci procjenjuju kako bi čak pet do devet tona dijelova ove 23 tona teške rakete moglo preživjeti izgaranje u atmosferi i uzrokovati materijalnu štetu ili ljudsko stradanje prilikom udara u tlo, piše Jutarnji.

Prema najnovijim procjenama stručnjaka iz tvrtke Aerospace Corporation, objavljenim u petak, kineska raketa trebala bi pasti na Zemlju oko 2,24h u noći sa subote na nedjelju po našem vremenu, no kako se radi o nekontroliranom ulasku u atmosferu, moguće je da do konačnog udara dođe i do 16 sati prije ili kasnije.

Ovog vikenda na Zemlju će se strmoglaviti kineska raketa teška 23 tone: nitko ne zna gdje će pasti, moguće su ljudske žrtve

Za razliku od većine suvremenih raketa koje zapadne države i Rusija koriste za lansiranje tereta u orbitu oko Zemlje, kineske Dugi marš 5B rakete svoj let završavaju u niskoj, nestabilnoj orbiti, te nemaju mogućnost kontroliranog ulaska u atmosferu koji bi osigurao da raketa padne u ocean ili na nenaseljeno područje.

Kineske rakete završe izvan kontrole, te polagano gube brzinu u najvišim slojevima atmosfere do točke gdje više ne mogu održavati orbitu. Taj je trenutak teško procijeniti jer ovisi o nizu nepredvidljivih faktora - od položaja rakete do temperature zraka, zbog koje se atmosfera širi ili sužava.

Iako su šanse da će netko biti ozlijeđen relativno niske - između 0,1 i 0,4 posto - prvo lansiranje rakete Dugi marš 5B u svibnju prošle godine završilo je padom metalnih komada na dva sela u Obali Bjelokosti, koji su oštetili nekolicinu kuća. Najmanje jedan dio bila je masivna čelična cijev, 12 metara duga, najvjerojatnije dio dovoda goriva.

Analitičari procjenjuju kako bi do devet tona materijala iz rakete moglo preživjeti ulazak u atmosferu i predstavljati opasnost po ljude i imovinu. Pri ulasku najčešće izgori oplata rakete i raspadne se najveći spremnik s gorivom, no manji i srednji spremnici - teški nekoliko tona i široki nekoliko metara - redovito padnu na tlo u jednom komadu. Ulazak bi mogli preživjeti i dijelovi masivnih raketnih motora.

Ako su stručnjaci točno procijenili vrijeme pada, raketa bi pala na sjevernom dijelu Arapskog poluotoka, na potezu od Egipta, preko Izraela i Jordana do Iraka, Irana i Turkmenistana. Njena putanja dalje ju ponovno vodi oko Zemlje, te bi se 90 minuta kasnije našla iznad Turske.

Još devedeset minuta i jednu orbitu kasnije, putanja raketu vodi iznad Sicilije, juga Italije i Grčke, a u sljedećoj orbiti, ukupno 270 minuta nakon procijenjenog trenutka pada, raketa će prelijetati središnji dio Italije, Albaniju i Sjevernu Makedoniju. Ako dođe do pada u jednom od posljednja dva navedena preleta, pad i izgaranje rakete gotovo će sigurno biti vidljivi iz Hrvatske.

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Otkriveno gdje bi kineska raketa mogla pasti, izgaranje bi se moglo vidjeti iz Hrvatske! ‘Dugi marš‘ past će na Zemlju ovoga vikenda

Piše Ivan Fischer/JL
29. srpnja 2022. - 14:14

Prvi stadij kineske rakete Changzheng 5B (Dugi marš 5B) past će na Zemlju ove subote ili nedjelje, a stručnjaci procjenjuju kako bi čak pet do devet tona dijelova ove 23 tona teške rakete moglo preživjeti izgaranje u atmosferi i uzrokovati materijalnu štetu ili ljudsko stradanje prilikom udara u tlo, piše Jutarnji.

Prema najnovijim procjenama stručnjaka iz tvrtke Aerospace Corporation, objavljenim u petak, kineska raketa trebala bi pasti na Zemlju oko 2,24h u noći sa subote na nedjelju po našem vremenu, no kako se radi o nekontroliranom ulasku u atmosferu, moguće je da do konačnog udara dođe i do 16 sati prije ili kasnije.

Ovog vikenda na Zemlju će se strmoglaviti kineska raketa teška 23 tone: nitko ne zna gdje će pasti, moguće su ljudske žrtve

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21. svibanj 2024 11:27