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[title] => Ima li Macron razloga za uzbunu uoči drugog kruga predsjedničkih izbora? Njegov ostanak na vlasti ovisit će o izlaznosti lijevih birača, ali još više o jednom važnom događaju za 15 dana
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Aktualni predsjednik Emmanuel Macron ne može u drugom krugu predsjedničkih izbora više računati na tradicionalni front francuskih birača protiv ekstremne desnice i morat će ojačati kampanju ako želi pobijediti Marine Le Pen koja je uspješno ublažila svoj imidž, ocjenjuje u nedjelju agencija Reuters.
Emmanuel Macron je po djelomičnim službenim rezultatima u prvom krugu izbora održanom u nedjelju dobio 27,4 posto, ispred kandidatkinje desničarskog Nacionalnog okupljanja (RN) Le Pen koja je dobila 25,54 posto.
Iako bi Macron na kraju mogao imati i bolji rezultat od očekivanog u prvom krugu, s vjerojatnim rezultatom od oko 28 posto glasova, čime poboljšava rezultat iz 2017., Macron ne može računati na sigurnu pobjedu u drugom krugu 24. travnja: ankete pokazuju vrlo tijesnu borbu protiv Le Pen.
Što je i sam priznao u izbornoj noći. "Još nije gotovo", rekao je Macron pred svojim pristašama. "Debata koju ćemo voditi tijekom 15 dana bit će odlučujuća za našu zemlju i za Europu", istaknuo je.
Na zadnjim izborima na nacionalnoj, regionalnoj i lokalnoj razini, glasači ljevice i desnice povijesno su se ujedinjavali kako bi blokirali dolazak na vlast krajnje desnice, što je fenomen poznat kao "republikanski front".
Dok su svi 'mainstream' kandidati, uključivo konzervativne Republikance i socijaliste dali potporu Macronu za drugi krug, nije sigurno da će ih birači slijediti.
"Među političarima, 'republikanski front' se kreće. Ostaje za vidjeti hoće li ga glasači slijediti", rekao je Mathieu Gallard iz francuskog Ipsosa.
Istraživanja javnog mnijenja Ipsosa kao i Opinionwaya pokazuju da će Macron dobiti 54 posto a Le Pen 46 posto u drugom krugu. Ali anketa Ifopa kaže da će Macron dobiti drugi krug s 51 posto glasova, što je unutar margine pogreške.
Ono što dodatno komplicira situaciju Macronu, Le Pen je uvelike odbacila svoje odbojne protuimigrantske stavove, antieuropsku retoriku i fokusirala se na pitanja troškova života koja više zanimaju birače.
U govoru u nedjelju prikazala se kao figura koja ujedinjuje, koja će zaliječiti francuske rane i zaustaviti "kaos" koji je donio Macron, bivši bankar za koga kaže da utjelovljuje "moć novca" i radi za manjinu.
Kandidat koji je u prvom krugu došao na treće mjesto, Jean-Luc Melenchon, zatražio je od birača da blokiraju Le Pen, ali se suzdržao od potpore Macronu, povećavajući nesigurnost kome će dati glas njegovih oko 21 posto glasača.
"Macronova politika ojačala je krajnju desnicu", rekla je Lea Druet (27) Reutersu u Melenchonovu stožeru. Za Macrona je glasala 2017., ali ovaj put neće izaći u drugom krugu na birališta.
Drugi Melenchonovi pristaše su nesigurni. "Vidjet ću kako će ići sljedeća dva tjedna. Ako će ankete govoriti 49-51, tada ću glasati za Macrona", rekao je Guillaume Raffi (36), glazbeni producent iz Montpelliera.
Macronovi pristaše kažu da će on morati provesti puno više vremena na terenu nego što je to učinio u kampanji za prvi krug ako želi pobijediti Le Pen. On je priznao da je prekasno ušao u kampanju jer se fokusirao na rat u Ukrajini.
"U drugom krugu Emmanuel Macron morat će malo više zasukati rukave nego u prvom", rekao je bivši francuski veleposlanik u Washingtonu Gerard Araud na Twitteru.
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Aktualni predsjednik Emmanuel Macron ne može u drugom krugu predsjedničkih izbora više računati na tradicionalni front francuskih birača protiv ekstremne desnice i morat će ojačati kampanju ako želi pobijediti Marine Le Pen koja je uspješno ublažila svoj imidž, ocjenjuje u nedjelju agencija Reuters.
Emmanuel Macron je po djelomičnim službenim rezultatima u prvom krugu izbora održanom u nedjelju dobio 27,4 posto, ispred kandidatkinje desničarskog Nacionalnog okupljanja (RN) Le Pen koja je dobila 25,54 posto.
Iako bi Macron na kraju mogao imati i bolji rezultat od očekivanog u prvom krugu, s vjerojatnim rezultatom od oko 28 posto glasova, čime poboljšava rezultat iz 2017., Macron ne može računati na sigurnu pobjedu u drugom krugu 24. travnja: ankete pokazuju vrlo tijesnu borbu protiv Le Pen.
Što je i sam priznao u izbornoj noći. "Još nije gotovo", rekao je Macron pred svojim pristašama. "Debata koju ćemo voditi tijekom 15 dana bit će odlučujuća za našu zemlju i za Europu", istaknuo je.
Na zadnjim izborima na nacionalnoj, regionalnoj i lokalnoj razini, glasači ljevice i desnice povijesno su se ujedinjavali kako bi blokirali dolazak na vlast krajnje desnice, što je fenomen poznat kao "republikanski front".
Dok su svi 'mainstream' kandidati, uključivo konzervativne Republikance i socijaliste dali potporu Macronu za drugi krug, nije sigurno da će ih birači slijediti.
"Među političarima, 'republikanski front' se kreće. Ostaje za vidjeti hoće li ga glasači slijediti", rekao je Mathieu Gallard iz francuskog Ipsosa.
Istraživanja javnog mnijenja Ipsosa kao i Opinionwaya pokazuju da će Macron dobiti 54 posto a Le Pen 46 posto u drugom krugu. Ali anketa Ifopa kaže da će Macron dobiti drugi krug s 51 posto glasova, što je unutar margine pogreške.
Ono što dodatno komplicira situaciju Macronu, Le Pen je uvelike odbacila svoje odbojne protuimigrantske stavove, antieuropsku retoriku i fokusirala se na pitanja troškova života koja više zanimaju birače.
U govoru u nedjelju prikazala se kao figura koja ujedinjuje, koja će zaliječiti francuske rane i zaustaviti "kaos" koji je donio Macron, bivši bankar za koga kaže da utjelovljuje "moć novca" i radi za manjinu.
Kandidat koji je u prvom krugu došao na treće mjesto, Jean-Luc Melenchon, zatražio je od birača da blokiraju Le Pen, ali se suzdržao od potpore Macronu, povećavajući nesigurnost kome će dati glas njegovih oko 21 posto glasača.
"Macronova politika ojačala je krajnju desnicu", rekla je Lea Druet (27) Reutersu u Melenchonovu stožeru. Za Macrona je glasala 2017., ali ovaj put neće izaći u drugom krugu na birališta.
Drugi Melenchonovi pristaše su nesigurni. "Vidjet ću kako će ići sljedeća dva tjedna. Ako će ankete govoriti 49-51, tada ću glasati za Macrona", rekao je Guillaume Raffi (36), glazbeni producent iz Montpelliera.
Macronovi pristaše kažu da će on morati provesti puno više vremena na terenu nego što je to učinio u kampanji za prvi krug ako želi pobijediti Le Pen. On je priznao da je prekasno ušao u kampanju jer se fokusirao na rat u Ukrajini.
"U drugom krugu Emmanuel Macron morat će malo više zasukati rukave nego u prvom", rekao je bivši francuski veleposlanik u Washingtonu Gerard Araud na Twitteru.
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15. svibanj 2024 13:21
