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[title] => Gdje će Putin ako padne? Bivši veleposlanik u Rusiji: Samo bi ga jedna država zaštitila, drugi ne bi izdržali pritisak
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“Prigožin već neko vrijeme otvoreno polemizira s vojnim establišmentom, a malo je vjerojatno da bi se on usudio tako ponašati, a da ne uživa zaštitu Vladimira Putina. Ako je vojni establišment o kojem trenutno ovisi cijeli režim u sukobu s Putinovim štićenikom to je pokazatelj pukotina unutar tog sustava vlasti”, rekao je za N1 bivši hrvatski veleposlanik u Rusiji Božo Kovačević.
Kaže kako je rješenje rata u Ukrajini ili vrlo uvjerljiv vojni poraz kojeg ruska propaganda neće moći prikazati kao pobjedu, a što bi onda rezultiralo s Putinovim odlaskom s vlasti, ili odlazak Putina s vlasti što može biti rezultat državnog udara, pa nakon toga bi se mogli povesti pregovori.
Ukrajinska vojska niže uspjehe ne bojišnici, unatoč tome što još, bar službeno, nije povela planiranu protuofenzivu koja se već dugo najavljuje, pa se postavlja pitanje hoće li takvi uspjesi ukrajinske vojske nagnati Kijev da krene u direktno preuzimanje kontrole nad odbjeglim proruskim narodnim republikama i Krimom?
“To su sasvim sigurno ukrajinski ciljevi. Pretpostavljam da konačna odluka ovisi o isporukama svega što je Zapad Ukrajini obećao. istodobno, sve što se događa, pokazuje slabosti ruske vojske koje su bile vidljive od početka te takozvane vojne operacije, a sad se pokazuju na vrlo drastičan način. To pokazuju gotovo panične izjave šefa Wagnera Prigožina i očita svađa ili neusklađenost između Wagnera i ruskog ministarstva obrane. To sve govori o panici u ruskim redovima”, zaključuje za N1 Kovačević.
No, ukrajinska ofenziva, koja bi direktno zaprijetila teritoriju kojeg Rusija smatra svojim mogla bi, bar po najavama bivšeg ruskog predsjednika Dmitrija Medvedeva, natjerati Rusiju da upotrijebiti “sva sredstva samozaštite”, odnosno i nuklarno oružje.
Kovačević kaže da takve najave otkrivaju paniku u ruskim redovima. “Sama činjenica da Rusi neprestano ističu mogućnost korištenja nuklearnog oružja govori da su svjesni neuspjeha u konvecinonalnom ratovanju i da su na neki način u panici”, rekao im je bivši veleposlanik.
Objašnjava da Rusi imaju ideju da nuklearna država ne može izgubiti rat.
“Sjedinjene Države su nuklearna država pa su izgubile rat u Vijetnamu, Afganistanu i nizu drugih država. Sovjetski Savez je bio nuklearna država pa je izgubio rat u Afganistanu. Francuska i Britanija su nuklearne države pa su izgubile svoja carstva. To nije nikakav argument. No, moguće je da oni u panici posegnu za upotrebm nuklearnog oružja, ali to bi onda ruski režim dovelo do ubrzanog kraha jer bi NATO na to, naravno, odgovorio”, rekao je Kovačević.
S obzirom na to da smo razgovarali o padu Putinovog režima i mogućoj pobuni protiv ili padu Putina, teško je za vjerovati da on, kao bivši KGB-ovac i FSB-ovac nema plan za bijeg iz zemlje u takvom slučaju. Kovačevića su upitali, koja bi se zemlja usudila primiti i zaštiti Putina u takvom scenariju.
“Pa teško je zamisliti tko bi ga primio u slučaju takvog scenarija, osim možda Kine. Nijedna druga država mu mu ne bi mogla jamčiti zaštitu. Bjeloruski režim bi se također urušio u trenutku pada Putinovog režima. Tako mi izgleda, jer se nijedna druga država ne bi mogla oduprijeti pritisku Sjedinjenih Država da, Putina kao osumnjičenog ratnog zločinca ne izruči Haškom sudu”, rekao je Kovačević.
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Bivši veleposlanik u Rusiji
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Bivši veleposlanik u Rusiji
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“Prigožin već neko vrijeme otvoreno polemizira s vojnim establišmentom, a malo je vjerojatno da bi se on usudio tako ponašati, a da ne uživa zaštitu Vladimira Putina. Ako je vojni establišment o kojem trenutno ovisi cijeli režim u sukobu s Putinovim štićenikom to je pokazatelj pukotina unutar tog sustava vlasti”, rekao je za N1 bivši hrvatski veleposlanik u Rusiji Božo Kovačević.
Kaže kako je rješenje rata u Ukrajini ili vrlo uvjerljiv vojni poraz kojeg ruska propaganda neće moći prikazati kao pobjedu, a što bi onda rezultiralo s Putinovim odlaskom s vlasti, ili odlazak Putina s vlasti što može biti rezultat državnog udara, pa nakon toga bi se mogli povesti pregovori.
Ukrajinska vojska niže uspjehe ne bojišnici, unatoč tome što još, bar službeno, nije povela planiranu protuofenzivu koja se već dugo najavljuje, pa se postavlja pitanje hoće li takvi uspjesi ukrajinske vojske nagnati Kijev da krene u direktno preuzimanje kontrole nad odbjeglim proruskim narodnim republikama i Krimom?
“To su sasvim sigurno ukrajinski ciljevi. Pretpostavljam da konačna odluka ovisi o isporukama svega što je Zapad Ukrajini obećao. istodobno, sve što se događa, pokazuje slabosti ruske vojske koje su bile vidljive od početka te takozvane vojne operacije, a sad se pokazuju na vrlo drastičan način. To pokazuju gotovo panične izjave šefa Wagnera Prigožina i očita svađa ili neusklađenost između Wagnera i ruskog ministarstva obrane. To sve govori o panici u ruskim redovima”, zaključuje za N1 Kovačević.
No, ukrajinska ofenziva, koja bi direktno zaprijetila teritoriju kojeg Rusija smatra svojim mogla bi, bar po najavama bivšeg ruskog predsjednika Dmitrija Medvedeva, natjerati Rusiju da upotrijebiti “sva sredstva samozaštite”, odnosno i nuklarno oružje.
Kovačević kaže da takve najave otkrivaju paniku u ruskim redovima. “Sama činjenica da Rusi neprestano ističu mogućnost korištenja nuklearnog oružja govori da su svjesni neuspjeha u konvecinonalnom ratovanju i da su na neki način u panici”, rekao im je bivši veleposlanik.
Objašnjava da Rusi imaju ideju da nuklearna država ne može izgubiti rat.
“Sjedinjene Države su nuklearna država pa su izgubile rat u Vijetnamu, Afganistanu i nizu drugih država. Sovjetski Savez je bio nuklearna država pa je izgubio rat u Afganistanu. Francuska i Britanija su nuklearne države pa su izgubile svoja carstva. To nije nikakav argument. No, moguće je da oni u panici posegnu za upotrebm nuklearnog oružja, ali to bi onda ruski režim dovelo do ubrzanog kraha jer bi NATO na to, naravno, odgovorio”, rekao je Kovačević.
S obzirom na to da smo razgovarali o padu Putinovog režima i mogućoj pobuni protiv ili padu Putina, teško je za vjerovati da on, kao bivši KGB-ovac i FSB-ovac nema plan za bijeg iz zemlje u takvom slučaju. Kovačevića su upitali, koja bi se zemlja usudila primiti i zaštiti Putina u takvom scenariju.
“Pa teško je zamisliti tko bi ga primio u slučaju takvog scenarija, osim možda Kine. Nijedna druga država mu mu ne bi mogla jamčiti zaštitu. Bjeloruski režim bi se također urušio u trenutku pada Putinovog režima. Tako mi izgleda, jer se nijedna druga država ne bi mogla oduprijeti pritisku Sjedinjenih Država da, Putina kao osumnjičenog ratnog zločinca ne izruči Haškom sudu”, rekao je Kovačević.
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20. svibanj 2024 11:34
