SD Dojavi
OSMRTNICE
PRETPLATA
PREMIUM
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Prof. dr. sc. Branko Kolarić ponudio je za RTL objašnjenja zašto se trendovi krivulja dnevnog broja umrlih od covida-19 u Njemačkoj i u Hrvatskoj tijekom posljednja dva tjedna ne podudaraju unatoč tome što su, ugrubo, u obje zemlje u istom razdoblju krivulje dnevno novozaraženih identične.

Riječ je o tjednim prosjecima stanja u Hrvatskoj prema podacima HZJZ-a i u Njemačkoj prema podacima Instituta Robert Koch.

Kod obje zemlje primjećuje se da su krivulje koje prate prosjeke dnevno zaraženih koronavirusom približno horizontalne, da sedmodnevni prosjek ostaje isti, ali dok u Njemačkoj isti ostaje i sedmodnevni prosjek dnevno umrlih od Covida-19, u Hrvatskoj tjedni prosjek umrlih raste - piše RTL.hr.

Posebna je okolnost to što u Njemačkoj konstantno bilježe oko jednog umrlog pacijenta na oko 100 oboljelih, dok je u Hrvatskoj to oko dvostruko više, jedan na 50.

"Broj zaraženih uvijek 'ispred' broja umrlih"

"Broj zaraženih je uvijek 'ispred' broja umrlih. Naime, od trenutka zaraze prođe tjedan do deset dana do trenutka kad oboljele osobe razviju težu kliničku sliku i zahtijevaju bolničko liječenje, dospiju u bolnice, te jedan dio njih završi i smrtno, i to nakon nekoliko tjedana, uglavnom tri i više, nakon zaražavanja", komentirao je član Znanstvenog savjeta Vlade Kolarić.

"Razlike koje spominjete mogle bi biti iz dva razloga", objasnio je dalje.

"Prvi bi moglo biti to da je Njemačka dosegla plato epidemijskog vala i trenutno ima stabilan broj zaraženih i broj umrlih, a Hrvatska je dosegla plato po broju zaraženih, ali ne i po broju umrlih", kazao je Kolarić i nastavio:

"Drugi mogući razlog je to da u Hrvatskoj postoji veći broj zaraženih osoba koje ne detektiramo, dok umrle bolje registriramo. Jer, manja je šansa da nećemo registrirati osobu umrlu od COVID-a nego da nećemo testirati i ubrojiti zaraženu osobu."

Trenutno ne možemo otkriti više od 4500 slučajeva dnevno

Kolarić je za RTL.hr objasnio i još nešto:

"Čini se da nam je gornja granica testiranja oko 12.000 PCR testova dnevno, te niti ne možemo otkriti više od oko 4500 zaraženih osoba dnevno ukoliko ne povećamo broj testiranja."

"Ako pogledate ukupan broj registriranih (zaraženih) u Hrvatskoj (323.000) i usporedite to sa studijom seroprevalncije HZZ-a koja je govorila da oko 25 posto ljudi koji imaju protutijela (što je oko milijun ljudi), to bi značilo da smo detektirali tek svaku treću zaraženu osobu", rekao je Kolarić za RTL.hr.

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Prof. dr. sc. Branko Kolarić ponudio je za RTL objašnjenja zašto se trendovi krivulja dnevnog broja umrlih od covida-19 u Njemačkoj i u Hrvatskoj tijekom posljednja dva tjedna ne podudaraju unatoč tome što su, ugrubo, u obje zemlje u istom razdoblju krivulje dnevno novozaraženih identične.

Riječ je o tjednim prosjecima stanja u Hrvatskoj prema podacima HZJZ-a i u Njemačkoj prema podacima Instituta Robert Koch.

Kod obje zemlje primjećuje se da su krivulje koje prate prosjeke dnevno zaraženih koronavirusom približno horizontalne, da sedmodnevni prosjek ostaje isti, ali dok u Njemačkoj isti ostaje i sedmodnevni prosjek dnevno umrlih od Covida-19, u Hrvatskoj tjedni prosjek umrlih raste - piše RTL.hr.

Posebna je okolnost to što u Njemačkoj konstantno bilježe oko jednog umrlog pacijenta na oko 100 oboljelih, dok je u Hrvatskoj to oko dvostruko više, jedan na 50.

"Broj zaraženih uvijek 'ispred' broja umrlih"

"Broj zaraženih je uvijek 'ispred' broja umrlih. Naime, od trenutka zaraze prođe tjedan do deset dana do trenutka kad oboljele osobe razviju težu kliničku sliku i zahtijevaju bolničko liječenje, dospiju u bolnice, te jedan dio njih završi i smrtno, i to nakon nekoliko tjedana, uglavnom tri i više, nakon zaražavanja", komentirao je član Znanstvenog savjeta Vlade Kolarić.

"Razlike koje spominjete mogle bi biti iz dva razloga", objasnio je dalje.

"Prvi bi moglo biti to da je Njemačka dosegla plato epidemijskog vala i trenutno ima stabilan broj zaraženih i broj umrlih, a Hrvatska je dosegla plato po broju zaraženih, ali ne i po broju umrlih", kazao je Kolarić i nastavio:

"Drugi mogući razlog je to da u Hrvatskoj postoji veći broj zaraženih osoba koje ne detektiramo, dok umrle bolje registriramo. Jer, manja je šansa da nećemo registrirati osobu umrlu od COVID-a nego da nećemo testirati i ubrojiti zaraženu osobu."

Trenutno ne možemo otkriti više od 4500 slučajeva dnevno

Kolarić je za RTL.hr objasnio i još nešto:

"Čini se da nam je gornja granica testiranja oko 12.000 PCR testova dnevno, te niti ne možemo otkriti više od oko 4500 zaraženih osoba dnevno ukoliko ne povećamo broj testiranja."

"Ako pogledate ukupan broj registriranih (zaraženih) u Hrvatskoj (323.000) i usporedite to sa studijom seroprevalncije HZZ-a koja je govorila da oko 25 posto ljudi koji imaju protutijela (što je oko milijun ljudi), to bi značilo da smo detektirali tek svaku treću zaraženu osobu", rekao je Kolarić za RTL.hr.

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Bruno Konjevic/Cropix
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StoryEditorOCM
HrvatskaKRIVULJA EPIDEMIJE

U Hrvatskoj se od Covida trenutno umire dvostruko više nego u Njemačkoj, epidemiolog Kolarić tumači zašto

Piše PSD
26. travnja 2021. - 17:15
15043410
PREMIUM
Bruno Konjevic/Cropix

Prof. dr. sc. Branko Kolarić ponudio je za RTL objašnjenja zašto se trendovi krivulja dnevnog broja umrlih od covida-19 u Njemačkoj i u Hrvatskoj tijekom posljednja dva tjedna ne podudaraju unatoč tome što su, ugrubo, u obje zemlje u istom razdoblju krivulje dnevno novozaraženih identične.

Riječ je o tjednim prosjecima stanja u Hrvatskoj prema podacima HZJZ-a i u Njemačkoj prema podacima Instituta Robert Koch.

Kod obje zemlje primjećuje se da su krivulje koje prate prosjeke dnevno zaraženih koronavirusom približno horizontalne, da sedmodnevni prosjek ostaje isti, ali dok u Njemačkoj isti ostaje i sedmodnevni prosjek dnevno umrlih od Covida-19, u Hrvatskoj tjedni prosjek umrlih raste - piše RTL.hr.

Posebna je okolnost to što u Njemačkoj konstantno bilježe oko jednog...

#BRANKO KOLARIĆ
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16. svibanj 2024 07:23