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[title] => Dr. Ozren Polašek o modelu koji predviđa 4000 novozaraženih dnevno: To je samo slika onoga što bi moglo biti. Bakić: Taj izračun je Potemkinovo selo
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Dr. Ozren Polašek s Medicinskog fakulteta u Splitu, član Znanstvenog savjeta smatra da će uzlazni trendovi rasta zaraze koronavirusom neće tako brzo smiriti. Prognozira kako će koncem travnja dnevni broj zaraženih premašit će 4.000.
S njim se ne slaže znanstvenik Gordan Lauc, po kojemu je pandemija dosad već tri puta završila, kao ni ravnatelj HZJZ-a Krunoslav Capak. Glavni državni epidemiolog računa da će se dnevni broj zaraženih kretati oko 3000, odnosno gotovo tisuću manje nego u projekcijama dr. Polašeka. No, i dalje vrlo zabrinjavajuće.
Na današnjem sastanku Znanstvenog savjeta u Banskim dvorima, bilo je razgovora i o Polašekovoj projekciji kretanja pandemije.
- To je vrlo jednostavan brojčani model koji govori o tome što će se dogoditi ako se baš ništa ne promijeni, ali situacija se mijenja. To nije model koji govori kako će biti, nego kako je najizglednije da bi se stvari mogle događati, ako parametri ostanu isti. On može poslužiti kao okosnica - objasnio je danas dr. Polašek na N1 televiziji.
- Ovaj model je samo slika koja bi se mogla dogoditi, ako se parametri ne mijenjaju, ali srećom, parametri se mijenjaju - rekao je Polašek, dodavši da model predviđa blagi porast zaraženih i hospitaliziranih, ali manji broj ljudi na respiratoru.
- Otprilike 2300 hospitaliziranih i 400 mrtvih u idućih par tjedana. Ali nadam se da se to neće ostvariti - rekao je Polašek ponavljajući kako se radi samo o modelu koji se temelji na trenutnim parametrima i kako se koji parametar promijeni, tako se mijenjaju i brojke.
- Ako dođe, je li to alarm za uzbunu? - pitao je voditelj.
- Ako se stvarno nastavi prema tom rastu, sigurno će biti nacionalni odgovor jer moramo misliti i na turističku sezonu. Danas smo razgovarali da ne možemo na sve županije primjenjivati iste mjere. Sve je pitanje balansa, kako smanjiti virus a ne raditi štetu, i gospodarsku i psihološku. Jedini pravi način je potaknuti cijepljenje - rekao je.
U razgovoru za televiziju N1, Polašek smatra da ne bi bilo fer na nacionalnoj razini uvesti mjere, kad se situacija od županije do županije bitno razlikuje. Dio članova Znanstvenog savjeta, naveo je, je mišljenja da treba popustiti mjere, dio članova je oprezan tako da drži kako je Vlada dobro postupila kad je odlučila situacija promatrti lokalno.
Nije se spominjalo kompletno zaključavanje niti policijski sat.
---
---
Matematičar Nenad Bakić pak odmah ga je napao.
Naveo je kako je rekonstruirao stope rasta u Polašekovom modelu te da je 'nažalost točno kako je i sam rekao da se radi o de facto produžavanju crta, konkretno, koristi Holt-Wintersov model za eksponencijalno izglađivanje, i dobiva glavni driver, što su stope rasta, a one ovako padaju'.
- Drugim riječima, taj pad uskoro prestaje i Polašekov model dolazi u 'eksponecijalni rast' od nekih 10 posto tjedno, a on sam zna da zbog sezonalnosti to ne može biti i zato nam je i prikazao samo 2 tjedna modela – uvjerava Bakić tvrdeći kako to nije epidemiološki S(E)IR model, nego Potemkinovo selo.
---
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Dr. Ozren Polašek s Medicinskog fakulteta u Splitu, član Znanstvenog savjeta smatra da će uzlazni trendovi rasta zaraze koronavirusom neće tako brzo smiriti. Prognozira kako će koncem travnja dnevni broj zaraženih premašit će 4.000.
S njim se ne slaže znanstvenik Gordan Lauc, po kojemu je pandemija dosad već tri puta završila, kao ni ravnatelj HZJZ-a Krunoslav Capak. Glavni državni epidemiolog računa da će se dnevni broj zaraženih kretati oko 3000, odnosno gotovo tisuću manje nego u projekcijama dr. Polašeka. No, i dalje vrlo zabrinjavajuće.
Na današnjem sastanku Znanstvenog savjeta u Banskim dvorima, bilo je razgovora i o Polašekovoj projekciji kretanja pandemije.
- To je vrlo jednostavan brojčani model koji govori o tome što će se dogoditi ako se baš ništa ne promijeni, ali situacija se mijenja. To nije model koji govori kako će biti, nego kako je najizglednije da bi se stvari mogle događati, ako parametri ostanu isti. On može poslužiti kao okosnica - objasnio je danas dr. Polašek na N1 televiziji.
- Ovaj model je samo slika koja bi se mogla dogoditi, ako se parametri ne mijenjaju, ali srećom, parametri se mijenjaju - rekao je Polašek, dodavši da model predviđa blagi porast zaraženih i hospitaliziranih, ali manji broj ljudi na respiratoru.
- Otprilike 2300 hospitaliziranih i 400 mrtvih u idućih par tjedana. Ali nadam se da se to neće ostvariti - rekao je Polašek ponavljajući kako se radi samo o modelu koji se temelji na trenutnim parametrima i kako se koji parametar promijeni, tako se mijenjaju i brojke.
- Ako dođe, je li to alarm za uzbunu? - pitao je voditelj.
- Ako se stvarno nastavi prema tom rastu, sigurno će biti nacionalni odgovor jer moramo misliti i na turističku sezonu. Danas smo razgovarali da ne možemo na sve županije primjenjivati iste mjere. Sve je pitanje balansa, kako smanjiti virus a ne raditi štetu, i gospodarsku i psihološku. Jedini pravi način je potaknuti cijepljenje - rekao je.
U razgovoru za televiziju N1, Polašek smatra da ne bi bilo fer na nacionalnoj razini uvesti mjere, kad se situacija od županije do županije bitno razlikuje. Dio članova Znanstvenog savjeta, naveo je, je mišljenja da treba popustiti mjere, dio članova je oprezan tako da drži kako je Vlada dobro postupila kad je odlučila situacija promatrti lokalno.
Nije se spominjalo kompletno zaključavanje niti policijski sat.
---
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Matematičar Nenad Bakić pak odmah ga je napao.
Naveo je kako je rekonstruirao stope rasta u Polašekovom modelu te da je 'nažalost točno kako je i sam rekao da se radi o de facto produžavanju crta, konkretno, koristi Holt-Wintersov model za eksponencijalno izglađivanje, i dobiva glavni driver, što su stope rasta, a one ovako padaju'.
- Drugim riječima, taj pad uskoro prestaje i Polašekov model dolazi u 'eksponecijalni rast' od nekih 10 posto tjedno, a on sam zna da zbog sezonalnosti to ne može biti i zato nam je i prikazao samo 2 tjedna modela – uvjerava Bakić tvrdeći kako to nije epidemiološki S(E)IR model, nego Potemkinovo selo.
---
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11. svibanj 2024 23:00
