SD Dojavi
OSMRTNICE
PRETPLATA
PREMIUM
stdClass Object ( [id] => 1080675 [title] => Izbori u Zagrebu nakon Bandićeve smrti počinju od nule. Evo koje scenarije predviđa analitičar Krešimir Macan, kaže da su moguća velika iznenađenja [alias] => izbori-u-zagrebu-nakon-bandiceve-smrti-pocinju-od-nule-evo-koje-scenarije-predvida-analiticar-kresimir-macan-kaze-da-su-moguca-velika-iznenadenja [catid] => 142 [published] => 1 [introtext] => [fulltext] =>

Bandićev nenadani odlazak resetira najunosniju predstojeću lokalnu utrku, onu za zagrebačku gradonačelničku fotelju, na nulte i tvorničke postavke. Nijedan izborni favorit više nema donedavni kredit, nikakva provedena istraživanja javnog mnijenja više puno ne drže vodu.

Trenutni je dojam kako je bez najčvršćeg uporišta i jasne izborne kalkulacije ostao Tomislav Tomašević: on je sad na sceni bez svog ključnog antagonista i antipoda. A što je Matan bez Škilje; što je Jerry bez Toma; što je Tuđman bez Miloševića?

Prema komunikacijskom stručnjaku Krešimiru Macanu, Tomašević i dalje ostaje zagrebački favorit, no odnosi i igrači na toj ploči će se jamačno intenzivno mijenjati. Nitko osim staklene kugle sad ne može ni naslutiti rasplet ovoga političkog rebusa.

- Bit će to iznimno zanimljiv politički triler, naročito u idućih par tjedana. Sama kampanja neće toliko utjecati na krajnji ishod izbora koliko podjela karata u narednih 15-ak dana – uvjeren je Macan.

Tomislav Tomašević je sad puno izloženiji udaru SDP-ova Joška Klisovića, koji ga može ugroziti znatno lakše nego dosad. Klisović može preteći Tomaševića pokaže li se da je umjereniji i realniji kandidat. Svi će biti prisiljeni promijeniti retoriku jer se dosad ona uglavnom svodila na jednostavnu klackalicu 'ili ja ili Bandić'. Sad je, međutim, primarno objasniti biračima zašto sam ja sam po sebi dobar izbor – tvrdi Macan.

Bandićeva će smrt po logici stvari ubrzano izblijediti loše, a pojačati sjećanja na neke dobre aspekte njegova mandata. Nije uvijek u njegovom Zagrebu bilo ni jednoznačno, ni loše: nekad su dječji vrtići bili najjeftiniji u državi, zagrebački roditelji su jedini u zemlji dobivali besplatne školske knjige za djecu, a penzioneri su se besplatno vozili tramvajima i dobivali socijalne i blagdanske dodatke… Sav taj bazen glasova sad najednom love novi lovci.

Macan smatra da će se dobar dio Bandićevih glasova sad više raspodijeliti u desnom dijelu spektra, te je otvoreno tko nakon njega može osvojiti istočna predgrađa, poput Sesveta i Dubrave. Na desnici bi mogao nastati kaos jer Damir Vanđelić, primjerice,  lako može napraviti brzi prodor u tom prostoru.

Ni Vesna Škare Ožbolt, po njegovu mišljenju, nije bez izgleda za drugi krug ako podigne javnu vidljivost. Most na tom dijelu terena ima oko deset posto, no Miroslav Škoro ih agresivnijim nastupom sve skupa može lako pomesti. Njegov populistički potencijal jedini je u stanju donekle parirati Bandićevom – procjenjuje Macan.

Izborni ishod u Zagrebu definirati će i dugoročne političke procese na nacionalnoj razini: uspije li s Klisovićem, SDP bi dobar trend mogao nastaviti i na razini parlamenta. „Možemo“ s Tomaševićem u slučaju trijumfa postaju aspiranti i na utjecaj u drugim dijelovima Hrvatske. Preraspodjela glasova u gradskoj Skupštini metropole i naknadno formiranje većine posebna je priča koja će se također prelijevati na ukupne političke odnose.

Slijede nam višestruko zanimljiva vremena, premda ni ova dosad nisu bila nimalo dosadna.

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Bandićev nenadani odlazak resetira najunosniju predstojeću lokalnu utrku, onu za zagrebačku gradonačelničku fotelju, na nulte i tvorničke postavke. Nijedan izborni favorit više nema donedavni kredit, nikakva provedena istraživanja javnog mnijenja više puno ne drže vodu.

Trenutni je dojam kako je bez najčvršćeg uporišta i jasne izborne kalkulacije ostao Tomislav Tomašević: on je sad na sceni bez svog ključnog antagonista i antipoda. A što je Matan bez Škilje; što je Jerry bez Toma; što je Tuđman bez Miloševića?

Prema komunikacijskom stručnjaku Krešimiru Macanu, Tomašević i dalje ostaje zagrebački favorit, no odnosi i igrači na toj ploči će se jamačno intenzivno mijenjati. Nitko osim staklene kugle sad ne može ni naslutiti rasplet ovoga političkog rebusa.

- Bit će to iznimno zanimljiv politički triler, naročito u idućih par tjedana. Sama kampanja neće toliko utjecati na krajnji ishod izbora koliko podjela karata u narednih 15-ak dana – uvjeren je Macan.

Tomislav Tomašević je sad puno izloženiji udaru SDP-ova Joška Klisovića, koji ga može ugroziti znatno lakše nego dosad. Klisović može preteći Tomaševića pokaže li se da je umjereniji i realniji kandidat. Svi će biti prisiljeni promijeniti retoriku jer se dosad ona uglavnom svodila na jednostavnu klackalicu 'ili ja ili Bandić'. Sad je, međutim, primarno objasniti biračima zašto sam ja sam po sebi dobar izbor – tvrdi Macan.

Bandićeva će smrt po logici stvari ubrzano izblijediti loše, a pojačati sjećanja na neke dobre aspekte njegova mandata. Nije uvijek u njegovom Zagrebu bilo ni jednoznačno, ni loše: nekad su dječji vrtići bili najjeftiniji u državi, zagrebački roditelji su jedini u zemlji dobivali besplatne školske knjige za djecu, a penzioneri su se besplatno vozili tramvajima i dobivali socijalne i blagdanske dodatke… Sav taj bazen glasova sad najednom love novi lovci.

Macan smatra da će se dobar dio Bandićevih glasova sad više raspodijeliti u desnom dijelu spektra, te je otvoreno tko nakon njega može osvojiti istočna predgrađa, poput Sesveta i Dubrave. Na desnici bi mogao nastati kaos jer Damir Vanđelić, primjerice,  lako može napraviti brzi prodor u tom prostoru.

Ni Vesna Škare Ožbolt, po njegovu mišljenju, nije bez izgleda za drugi krug ako podigne javnu vidljivost. Most na tom dijelu terena ima oko deset posto, no Miroslav Škoro ih agresivnijim nastupom sve skupa može lako pomesti. Njegov populistički potencijal jedini je u stanju donekle parirati Bandićevom – procjenjuje Macan.

Izborni ishod u Zagrebu definirati će i dugoročne političke procese na nacionalnoj razini: uspije li s Klisovićem, SDP bi dobar trend mogao nastaviti i na razini parlamenta. „Možemo“ s Tomaševićem u slučaju trijumfa postaju aspiranti i na utjecaj u drugim dijelovima Hrvatske. Preraspodjela glasova u gradskoj Skupštini metropole i naknadno formiranje većine posebna je priča koja će se također prelijevati na ukupne političke odnose.

Slijede nam višestruko zanimljiva vremena, premda ni ova dosad nisu bila nimalo dosadna.

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StoryEditorOCM
HrvatskaUTRKA TEK POČINJE

Izbori u Zagrebu nakon Bandićeve smrti počinju od nule. Evo koje scenarije predviđa analitičar Krešimir Macan, kaže da su moguća velika iznenađenja

Piše Davor Krile
28. veljače 2021. - 14:58
17024942
PREMIUM
Ronald Goršić/Cropix

Bandićev nenadani odlazak resetira najunosniju predstojeću lokalnu utrku, onu za zagrebačku gradonačelničku fotelju, na nulte i tvorničke postavke. Nijedan izborni favorit više nema donedavni kredit, nikakva provedena istraživanja javnog mnijenja više puno ne drže vodu.

Trenutni je dojam kako je bez najčvršćeg uporišta i jasne izborne kalkulacije ostao Tomislav Tomašević: on je sad na sceni bez svog ključnog antagonista i antipoda. A što je Matan bez Škilje; što je Jerry bez Toma; što je Tuđman bez Miloševića?

Prema komunikacijskom stručnjaku Krešimiru Macanu, Tomašević i dalje ostaje zagrebački favorit, no odnosi i igrači na toj ploči će se jamačno intenzivno mijenjati. Nitko osim staklene kugle sad ne može ni naslutiti rasplet ovoga političkog rebusa.

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#MILAN BANDIĆ 1955. - 2021. #IZBORI U ZAGREBU
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15. svibanj 2024 01:10