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[title] => Američki meteorolozi izradili dugoročnu prognozu za Dalmaciju: vrijeme će biti izvan svih očekivanja, ali stručnjaci navode da se njihovo predviđanje treba uzeti s oprezom
[alias] => americki-meteorolozi-izradili-dugorocnu-prognozu-za-dalmaciju-vrijeme-ce-biti-izvan-svih-ocekivanja-ali-strucnjaci-navode-da-se-njihovo-predvidanje-treba-uzeti-s-oprezom
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Kako smo već i najavili, meteorolozi navode da nas očekuje val toplog vremena u narednom razdoblju.
Naime, i u mjesecu studenom kada bi se trebali osjetti prvi mrazevi, a u Zagori početi i tradicionalna svinjokolja koja se mora obavljati u hladno vrijeme, najavljuju se temperature od skoro 20 stupnjeva °C.
Srednje dnevne temperature u Splitu u tom vremenu su inače, prema arhivskim podacima DHMZ-a (razdoblje 1961.- 1990.) na početku mjeseca oko 15 °C, da bi se već sredinom mjeseca temperatura približila na oko 10 °C.
Ako ćemo uzeti razdoblje 1948. - 2017., dobit ćemo slične podatke.
Ako se obistine američke računalne prognoze očekuje nas jako topao studeni, možda jedan od najtoplijih u povijesti. Međutim, moramo napomenuti da je to računalna prognoza kojoj s protekom vremena opada i pouzdanost. Naime, kako navodi naš DHMZ, prognoza vremena može biti subjektivna i objektivna. Subjektivne prognoze izrađuje meteorolog prognostičar na osnovu raznih dostupnih motrenih podataka, izračuna više prognostičkih modela, ali i vlastitog iskustva. I one su uglavnom jako pouzdane.
"Točnost najboljih modela je prosječno oko 95 posto za treći dan prognoze, oko 85 posto za peti dan te oko 70 posto za sedmi dan. Za deseti dan unaprijed točnost je manja od 50 posto. Dakle, ako planirate izlet za 15 dana, morate imati na umu da je prognoza koju vidite na mobitelu za taj dan danas možda točna, ali je vjerojatnost za to oko 40 posto, tako da je možda i posve pogrešna", rekla je svojedobno za 'Slobodnu' dr. sc. Nataša Strelec Mahović, meteorologinja.
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Kako smo već i najavili, meteorolozi navode da nas očekuje val toplog vremena u narednom razdoblju.
Naime, i u mjesecu studenom kada bi se trebali osjetti prvi mrazevi, a u Zagori početi i tradicionalna svinjokolja koja se mora obavljati u hladno vrijeme, najavljuju se temperature od skoro 20 stupnjeva °C.
Srednje dnevne temperature u Splitu u tom vremenu su inače, prema arhivskim podacima DHMZ-a (razdoblje 1961.- 1990.) na početku mjeseca oko 15 °C, da bi se već sredinom mjeseca temperatura približila na oko 10 °C.
Ako ćemo uzeti razdoblje 1948. - 2017., dobit ćemo slične podatke.
Ako se obistine američke računalne prognoze očekuje nas jako topao studeni, možda jedan od najtoplijih u povijesti. Međutim, moramo napomenuti da je to računalna prognoza kojoj s protekom vremena opada i pouzdanost. Naime, kako navodi naš DHMZ, prognoza vremena može biti subjektivna i objektivna. Subjektivne prognoze izrađuje meteorolog prognostičar na osnovu raznih dostupnih motrenih podataka, izračuna više prognostičkih modela, ali i vlastitog iskustva. I one su uglavnom jako pouzdane.
"Točnost najboljih modela je prosječno oko 95 posto za treći dan prognoze, oko 85 posto za peti dan te oko 70 posto za sedmi dan. Za deseti dan unaprijed točnost je manja od 50 posto. Dakle, ako planirate izlet za 15 dana, morate imati na umu da je prognoza koju vidite na mobitelu za taj dan danas možda točna, ali je vjerojatnost za to oko 40 posto, tako da je možda i posve pogrešna", rekla je svojedobno za 'Slobodnu' dr. sc. Nataša Strelec Mahović, meteorologinja.
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19. svibanj 2024 15:38
