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[title] => Euro sve bliži granici od sedam kuna
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Tečaj domaće valute dosegnuo je u srijedu iznimno niskih 7,108 kuna za jedan euro, a analitičari se slažu kako bi se kratkoročno tečaj mogao zadržati na tim razinama, dok će presudnu ulogu u daljnjem smjeru tečaja odigrati MOL-ovo preuzimanje Ine.
- Ako MOL uspije kupiti samo manji dio dionica Ine, tada će tečaj vrlo brzo krenuti prema 7,20 kuna za euro, no ako se dogodi da MOL kupi veći broj dionica, pa na tržište stigne predviđeni iznos od više od osam milijardi kuna, tada bi se zatresla i granica od sedam kuna za euro - kazao nam je Zvonimir Akrap, direktor trgovanja, prodaje i brokerskog poslovanja Societe Generale Splitske banke.
Pritisak na likvidnost
- Ukupna dnevna likvidnost hrvatskog tržišta kreće se na razini od oko devet milijardi kuna, pa bi pritisak od osam do devet milijardi kuna na tržištu imao jak učinak na tržište. No, ako se to ne dogodi, a banke su dosta jako postavljene na takozvanim short-pozicijama, tada će tečaj vjerojatno otići prema gore - smatra Akrap.
Prema njegovim riječima, Hrvatska narodna banka mogla bi reagirati ako se tečaj pri sadašnjim okolnostima spusti ispod 7,10 kuna, dodajući kako se u srijedu na međubankarskom tržištu trgovalo po tečaju od 7,11 kuna za euro.
Zdeslav Šantić, glavni ekonomist Raiffeisen banke (RBA), smatra kako je tržište već dijelom ukalkuliralo transakciju između Ine i MOL-a, te da tečaj neće ni pri većoj transakciji pasti ispod sedam kuna za euro.
- Mislim da bi u tom slučaju intervenirala i središnja banka. No, smanjivanju pritiska na jačanje tečaja pridonijelo je i to što HNB nije dodatnim mjerama smanjivala likvidnost na tržištu, jer je na tržištu bio prisutan strah da će do toga doći zbog inflatornih pritisaka. No, kako inflacija već počinje polako padati, a HNB u zadnjim repo aukcijama prihvaća većinu potreba banaka, nestao je i strah od daljnjeg smanjivanja likvidnosti, što je smanjilo tendenciju jačanja kune - istaknuo je Šantić, dodavši kako bi prema kraju godine tečaj trebao ići prema 7,20 kuna za euro.
frenki laušić / epeha
|
7,108 kuna za jedan euro dosegnuo je tečaj u srijedu
7,20 prema toj granici krenut će tečaj ako MOL kupi malo dionica Ine
|
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[value] => Tečaj bi se mogao kratkoročno zadržati na iznimno niskim razinama, a kupi li MOL veći broj Ininih dionica vrijednih više od 8 mlrd. kuna, mogla bi se zatresti i granica od sedam kuna
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Tečaj domaće valute dosegnuo je u srijedu iznimno niskih 7,108 kuna za jedan euro, a analitičari se slažu kako bi se kratkoročno tečaj mogao zadržati na tim razinama, dok će presudnu ulogu u daljnjem smjeru tečaja odigrati MOL-ovo preuzimanje Ine.
- Ako MOL uspije kupiti samo manji dio dionica Ine, tada će tečaj vrlo brzo krenuti prema 7,20 kuna za euro, no ako se dogodi da MOL kupi veći broj dionica, pa na tržište stigne predviđeni iznos od više od osam milijardi kuna, tada bi se zatresla i granica od sedam kuna za euro - kazao nam je Zvonimir Akrap, direktor trgovanja, prodaje i brokerskog poslovanja Societe Generale Splitske banke.
Pritisak na likvidnost
- Ukupna dnevna likvidnost hrvatskog tržišta kreće se na razini od oko devet milijardi kuna, pa bi pritisak od osam do devet milijardi kuna na tržištu imao jak učinak na tržište. No, ako se to ne dogodi, a banke su dosta jako postavljene na takozvanim short-pozicijama, tada će tečaj vjerojatno otići prema gore - smatra Akrap.
Prema njegovim riječima, Hrvatska narodna banka mogla bi reagirati ako se tečaj pri sadašnjim okolnostima spusti ispod 7,10 kuna, dodajući kako se u srijedu na međubankarskom tržištu trgovalo po tečaju od 7,11 kuna za euro.
Zdeslav Šantić, glavni ekonomist Raiffeisen banke (RBA), smatra kako je tržište već dijelom ukalkuliralo transakciju između Ine i MOL-a, te da tečaj neće ni pri većoj transakciji pasti ispod sedam kuna za euro.
- Mislim da bi u tom slučaju intervenirala i središnja banka. No, smanjivanju pritiska na jačanje tečaja pridonijelo je i to što HNB nije dodatnim mjerama smanjivala likvidnost na tržištu, jer je na tržištu bio prisutan strah da će do toga doći zbog inflatornih pritisaka. No, kako inflacija već počinje polako padati, a HNB u zadnjim repo aukcijama prihvaća većinu potreba banaka, nestao je i strah od daljnjeg smanjivanja likvidnosti, što je smanjilo tendenciju jačanja kune - istaknuo je Šantić, dodavši kako bi prema kraju godine tečaj trebao ići prema 7,20 kuna za euro.
frenki laušić / epeha
|
7,108 kuna za jedan euro dosegnuo je tečaj u srijedu
7,20 prema toj granici krenut će tečaj ako MOL kupi malo dionica Ine
|
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17. svibanj 2024 23:20
