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[title] => Želite dočekati Novu godinu na otvorenome? Donosimo vam detaljnu prognozu po gradovima
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Ako ćemo suditi po računalnoj prognozi ECMWF koju koristi naš Državni hidrometeorološki zavod, vrijeme na Staru i Novu godinu u Dalmaciji će biti stabilno, bez padalina. No, bit će prohladno pa će oko 22 sata, dakle kada se ljudi već lagano upućuju na proslave na otvorenome, temperatura u Splitu, Dubrovniku, Zadru, Šibeniku biti oko 4 stupnja, a mogla bi se i spustiti još koji stupanj do ponoći. Bit će oblačno, ali bez padalina.
U Dalmatinskoj zagori temperatura u isto vrijeme, dakle tijekom dočeka, će biti oko i ispod nule, dok će na otocima biti oko 6 - 7 stupnjeva, ali naravno poviše nule. Pregledali smo i što kažu strani prognostički centri. Pa tako popularni norveški meteoservis (yr.no) u Dalmaciji 31. prosinca i 1. siječnja 2019. predviđa stabilno vrijeme, možda će negdje u Dalmaciji pasti nekoliko kapi kiše, ali ništa što bi poremetilo proslave na otvorenom. Također, i američki Accuweather predviđa slično vrijeme.
A što su sedmodnevne i dugoročne prognoze i koliko im se može vjerovati? Primjerice, DHMZ objašnjava da je model ECMWF objektivna prognoza, odnosno izravan rezultat numeričkog atmosferskog prognostičkog modela Europskog centra za srednjoročnu prognozu vremena (ECMWF), te se može znatno razlikovati od prognoza drugih računalnih modela atmosfere, odnosno, od prognoza koje izrađuju prognostičari.
- Prognoza vremena može biti subjektivna i objektivna. Subjektivne prognoze izrađuje meteorolog prognostičar na osnovi raznih dostupnih motrenih podataka, izračuna više prognostičkih modela, ali i vlastitog iskustva. Objektivna ili računalna prognoza je izravan rezultat nekog atmosferskog prognostičkog modela (npr. ECMWF ili ALADIN). Znak vremena određen je iz prognoze količine naoblake u određenom terminu, te akumulirane oborine u prethodnom razdoblju do tog termina.
Prognoza temperature zraka i vjetra također je izravan rezultat modela u tom terminu, također bez ispravke prognostičara. Zbog toga se objektivne i subjektivne prognoze mogu znatno razlikovati. Stoga, izravne objektivne računalne prognoze potrebno je tumačiti kao jedan od dostupnih izvora informacija i usporediti ih s ostalim dostupnim objektivnim i subjektivnim prognozama. Također, valja imati na umu da je pouzdanost prognoza sve manja što je prognostičko razdoblje dulje - objašnjavaju u našem DHMZ-u.
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Ako ćemo suditi po računalnoj prognozi ECMWF koju koristi naš Državni hidrometeorološki zavod, vrijeme na Staru i Novu godinu u Dalmaciji će biti stabilno, bez padalina. No, bit će prohladno pa će oko 22 sata, dakle kada se ljudi već lagano upućuju na proslave na otvorenome, temperatura u Splitu, Dubrovniku, Zadru, Šibeniku biti oko 4 stupnja, a mogla bi se i spustiti još koji stupanj do ponoći. Bit će oblačno, ali bez padalina.
U Dalmatinskoj zagori temperatura u isto vrijeme, dakle tijekom dočeka, će biti oko i ispod nule, dok će na otocima biti oko 6 - 7 stupnjeva, ali naravno poviše nule. Pregledali smo i što kažu strani prognostički centri. Pa tako popularni norveški meteoservis (yr.no) u Dalmaciji 31. prosinca i 1. siječnja 2019. predviđa stabilno vrijeme, možda će negdje u Dalmaciji pasti nekoliko kapi kiše, ali ništa što bi poremetilo proslave na otvorenom. Također, i američki Accuweather predviđa slično vrijeme.
A što su sedmodnevne i dugoročne prognoze i koliko im se može vjerovati? Primjerice, DHMZ objašnjava da je model ECMWF objektivna prognoza, odnosno izravan rezultat numeričkog atmosferskog prognostičkog modela Europskog centra za srednjoročnu prognozu vremena (ECMWF), te se može znatno razlikovati od prognoza drugih računalnih modela atmosfere, odnosno, od prognoza koje izrađuju prognostičari.
- Prognoza vremena može biti subjektivna i objektivna. Subjektivne prognoze izrađuje meteorolog prognostičar na osnovi raznih dostupnih motrenih podataka, izračuna više prognostičkih modela, ali i vlastitog iskustva. Objektivna ili računalna prognoza je izravan rezultat nekog atmosferskog prognostičkog modela (npr. ECMWF ili ALADIN). Znak vremena određen je iz prognoze količine naoblake u određenom terminu, te akumulirane oborine u prethodnom razdoblju do tog termina.
Prognoza temperature zraka i vjetra također je izravan rezultat modela u tom terminu, također bez ispravke prognostičara. Zbog toga se objektivne i subjektivne prognoze mogu znatno razlikovati. Stoga, izravne objektivne računalne prognoze potrebno je tumačiti kao jedan od dostupnih izvora informacija i usporediti ih s ostalim dostupnim objektivnim i subjektivnim prognozama. Također, valja imati na umu da je pouzdanost prognoza sve manja što je prognostičko razdoblje dulje - objašnjavaju u našem DHMZ-u.
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20. svibanj 2024 06:23
