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[title] => Od ‘92. more na splitskom području godišnje raste 2,7 milimetara! Hoće li se picigin ovim tempom preseliti na Peristil, objašnjava nam stručnjak: ‘Postoje tri scenarija, momentalno smo u prvom...‘
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Sumorna predviđanja za budućnost naše planete koja udarce globalnom klimatskom zagrijavanju vraća, između ostalog, kroz podizanje razine mora, prisnažuju i činjenice iz naših znanstvenih institucija. Stručnjaci Hrvatskog hidrografskog instituta bilježe podatak da je na splitskom području u razdoblju od 1955. do 2020. godine srednja razina mora u porastu, u iznosu od otprilike milimetar godišnje.
Ali u rasponu od 1992. kada je započelo praćenje promjena visina razine mora satelitskim altimetrima, pa do 2020. godine, na splitskom je području evidentiran porast od 2,7 milimetara na godišnjoj razini. Ako bi se nastavio ovakav rast, za sto godina razina mora bi se digla za 27 centimetara, čime dolazimo do brojke koja izaziva zabrinutost.
Ako bi se nastavio ovakav rast, za sto godina razina mora podignula bi se za 27 centimetara, čime dolazimo do brojke koja izaziva zabrinutost.
Činjenice su to koje praktički demonstriraju tvrdnje stručnjaka o katastrofalnim promjenama koje bi se mogle dogoditi ako najveći zagađivači atmosfere ne zaustave trend rastuće proizvodnje stakleničkih plinova. Ako Kina, Amerika, Rusija, Indija i Brazil ne uravnoteže industrijske nusprodukte koji posljedično izazivaju globalne klimatske promjene, do kraja stojeća razina mora mogla bi se podignuti i preko jednog metra. To bi rezultiralo potapanjem brojnih gradova i naselja uz obalu. Dovelo bi to i do toga da bi se picigin mogao igrati na Peristilu, Stradun obilaziti barkicama, a u pulskoj Areni mogla bi se organizirati vaterpolska utakmica. Nije dobro.
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Priča o tri scenarija
– Klimatolozi nude tri scenarija. Momentalno smo u prvom, u onom u kojem se čelnici sastaju na konferencijama poput ove u Glasgowu, na kojima se apelira, razmatra potreba smanjenja emisije štetnih plinova, traži spas za zemlju. U fazi smo u kojoj još uvijek imamo prostora nešto napraviti.
Druga razina ide do maksimalna dva stupnja povećanja temperature. Tada još uvijek možemo ići unatrag. Ali onog trena kad ona poraste iznad dva stupnja, tada proces ide samo naprijed.
Momentalno bilježimo povećanje temperature od 1,1 stupnja u odnosu na predindustrijsko razdoblje, što prati niz ekstremnih pojava. Govorimo o sušama, ljetnim rekordnim temperaturama, poplavama, tornadima tamo gdje ih nikada nije bilo. Sve je to zbog promjena klime postalo sastavni dio života – kaže Srđan Čupić, načelnik Oceanološkog odjela Hrvatskog hidrografskog instituta (HHI).
Podsjetimo, na pariškoj konferenciji usvojen je sporazum koji uključuje cilj jačanja globalnog odgovora na prijetnju klimatskih promjena.
Njime je utvrđeno održavanje povećanja globalne prosječne temperature na znatno ispod dva stupnja iznad predindustrijskih razina. I uz nastojanje da se ograniči porast temperature na 1,5 °C iznad predindustrijskih razina. Ali?
– Do danas nije vidljiv značajniji napredak, pa su oči svjetske javnosti uperene na glasgowsku konferenciju. Što će biti, to ćemo vidjeti – veli Čupić.
Ako najveći zagađivači ipak nastave po starom, tada bismo, po već uvriježenom i poznatom nam scenariju s godišnjim povećanjem od 0,1 Celzijeva stupnja, do 2050. godine imali skok na 1,5 stupnjeva. Očekivanja su da bi se to moglo dogoditi i ranije. Znate što to znači na koncu?
Teška, mučna ljeta, suše, ogromne štete u poljoprivredi, ribarstvu, turizmu. Vraćamo se na Split i mjerenja koja pokazuju da nas zemlja ozbiljno upozorava.
– Uređaj koji prati promjene u visinama razine mora naziva se mareograf. HHI ima šest ovakvih uređaja, od kojih su oni u Splitu, Rovinju i Dubrovniku s dugogodišnjom tradicijom mjerenja na našoj obali.
Splitski je smješten u kamenoj kućici na gatu pred Lučkom kapetanijom. Tu je od 1955. godine, otkad kontinuirano prati stanje razine mora. Od 2004. godine ovaj je mareograf opremljen i CGPS stanicom koja mjeri vertikalne pomake tla. Mnogi uopće i ne znaju čemu služi ta kućica, neki misle da je to stanica iz koje se lansiraju rakete za Novu godinu ili neke gradske fešte.
---
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Sve je više ekstremnih pojava
U njoj zapravo postoje precizni instrumenti koji mjere vrlo važne podatke. Naveli smo 1992. godinu kao ključnu u našim mjerenjima. Ključna je zato što se rezultati mjerenja na mareografima od tada mogu usporediti s mjerenjima satelitskih altimetara – veli Čupić.
Od 1992. godine porast razine mora očitava se na sva tri mareografa, čime se pokazala točnost teze o globalnim klimatskim promjenama. More, naime, posljedično pokazuje što se događa gore, u atmosferi. Preko njega se prelamaju i brojni ekstremi koji su nekada bili samo rijetke pojave.
– Nekada je u 50 godina možda bio jedan takav ekstremni događaj, a danas ih brojimo godišnje. Pa pogledajmo samo poplavljene rive u Trogiru, Kaštelima, razbijanje infrastrukture u Baškoj Vodi nastale zbog visokih valova... Ima toga jako puno. To su opasne situacije, posljedice vezane uz klimatske promjene, otapanje ledenjaka i jaku pojavnost stakleničkih plinova – kaže načelnik Srđan Čupić.
---
Kako radi mareograf
Mareograf radi 365 dana u godini 24 sata dnevno. Svakog ponedjeljka u 12 sati mijenja se traka, a uz nju je i digitalni sustav koji radi kontinuirano. Mareograf pomaže u sagledavanju i analiziranju stanja u realnom vremenu. Samim tim stručnjaci Hrvatskog hidrografskog instituta izdaju upute i priopćenja, te bilježe ekstremna događanja.
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Sumorna predviđanja za budućnost naše planete koja udarce globalnom klimatskom zagrijavanju vraća, između ostalog, kroz podizanje razine mora, prisnažuju i činjenice iz naših znanstvenih institucija. Stručnjaci Hrvatskog hidrografskog instituta bilježe podatak da je na splitskom području u razdoblju od 1955. do 2020. godine srednja razina mora u porastu, u iznosu od otprilike milimetar godišnje.
Ali u rasponu od 1992. kada je započelo praćenje promjena visina razine mora satelitskim altimetrima, pa do 2020. godine, na splitskom je području evidentiran porast od 2,7 milimetara na godišnjoj razini. Ako bi se nastavio ovakav rast, za sto godina razina mora bi se digla za 27 centimetara, čime dolazimo do brojke koja izaziva zabrinutost.
Ako bi se nastavio ovakav rast, za sto godina razina mora podignula bi se za 27 centimetara, čime dolazimo do brojke koja izaziva zabrinutost.
Činjenice su to koje praktički demonstriraju tvrdnje stručnjaka o katastrofalnim promjenama koje bi se mogle dogoditi ako najveći zagađivači atmosfere ne zaustave trend rastuće proizvodnje stakleničkih plinova. Ako Kina, Amerika, Rusija, Indija i Brazil ne uravnoteže industrijske nusprodukte koji posljedično izazivaju globalne klimatske promjene, do kraja stojeća razina mora mogla bi se podignuti i preko jednog metra. To bi rezultiralo potapanjem brojnih gradova i naselja uz obalu. Dovelo bi to i do toga da bi se picigin mogao igrati na Peristilu, Stradun obilaziti barkicama, a u pulskoj Areni mogla bi se organizirati vaterpolska utakmica. Nije dobro.
---
---
Priča o tri scenarija
– Klimatolozi nude tri scenarija. Momentalno smo u prvom, u onom u kojem se čelnici sastaju na konferencijama poput ove u Glasgowu, na kojima se apelira, razmatra potreba smanjenja emisije štetnih plinova, traži spas za zemlju. U fazi smo u kojoj još uvijek imamo prostora nešto napraviti.
Druga razina ide do maksimalna dva stupnja povećanja temperature. Tada još uvijek možemo ići unatrag. Ali onog trena kad ona poraste iznad dva stupnja, tada proces ide samo naprijed.
Momentalno bilježimo povećanje temperature od 1,1 stupnja u odnosu na predindustrijsko razdoblje, što prati niz ekstremnih pojava. Govorimo o sušama, ljetnim rekordnim temperaturama, poplavama, tornadima tamo gdje ih nikada nije bilo. Sve je to zbog promjena klime postalo sastavni dio života – kaže Srđan Čupić, načelnik Oceanološkog odjela Hrvatskog hidrografskog instituta (HHI).
Podsjetimo, na pariškoj konferenciji usvojen je sporazum koji uključuje cilj jačanja globalnog odgovora na prijetnju klimatskih promjena.
Njime je utvrđeno održavanje povećanja globalne prosječne temperature na znatno ispod dva stupnja iznad predindustrijskih razina. I uz nastojanje da se ograniči porast temperature na 1,5 °C iznad predindustrijskih razina. Ali?
– Do danas nije vidljiv značajniji napredak, pa su oči svjetske javnosti uperene na glasgowsku konferenciju. Što će biti, to ćemo vidjeti – veli Čupić.
Ako najveći zagađivači ipak nastave po starom, tada bismo, po već uvriježenom i poznatom nam scenariju s godišnjim povećanjem od 0,1 Celzijeva stupnja, do 2050. godine imali skok na 1,5 stupnjeva. Očekivanja su da bi se to moglo dogoditi i ranije. Znate što to znači na koncu?
Teška, mučna ljeta, suše, ogromne štete u poljoprivredi, ribarstvu, turizmu. Vraćamo se na Split i mjerenja koja pokazuju da nas zemlja ozbiljno upozorava.
– Uređaj koji prati promjene u visinama razine mora naziva se mareograf. HHI ima šest ovakvih uređaja, od kojih su oni u Splitu, Rovinju i Dubrovniku s dugogodišnjom tradicijom mjerenja na našoj obali.
Splitski je smješten u kamenoj kućici na gatu pred Lučkom kapetanijom. Tu je od 1955. godine, otkad kontinuirano prati stanje razine mora. Od 2004. godine ovaj je mareograf opremljen i CGPS stanicom koja mjeri vertikalne pomake tla. Mnogi uopće i ne znaju čemu služi ta kućica, neki misle da je to stanica iz koje se lansiraju rakete za Novu godinu ili neke gradske fešte.
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Sve je više ekstremnih pojava
U njoj zapravo postoje precizni instrumenti koji mjere vrlo važne podatke. Naveli smo 1992. godinu kao ključnu u našim mjerenjima. Ključna je zato što se rezultati mjerenja na mareografima od tada mogu usporediti s mjerenjima satelitskih altimetara – veli Čupić.
Od 1992. godine porast razine mora očitava se na sva tri mareografa, čime se pokazala točnost teze o globalnim klimatskim promjenama. More, naime, posljedično pokazuje što se događa gore, u atmosferi. Preko njega se prelamaju i brojni ekstremi koji su nekada bili samo rijetke pojave.
– Nekada je u 50 godina možda bio jedan takav ekstremni događaj, a danas ih brojimo godišnje. Pa pogledajmo samo poplavljene rive u Trogiru, Kaštelima, razbijanje infrastrukture u Baškoj Vodi nastale zbog visokih valova... Ima toga jako puno. To su opasne situacije, posljedice vezane uz klimatske promjene, otapanje ledenjaka i jaku pojavnost stakleničkih plinova – kaže načelnik Srđan Čupić.
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Kako radi mareograf
Mareograf radi 365 dana u godini 24 sata dnevno. Svakog ponedjeljka u 12 sati mijenja se traka, a uz nju je i digitalni sustav koji radi kontinuirano. Mareograf pomaže u sagledavanju i analiziranju stanja u realnom vremenu. Samim tim stručnjaci Hrvatskog hidrografskog instituta izdaju upute i priopćenja, te bilježe ekstremna događanja.
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21. svibanj 2024 04:06
