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Znanstvenik Ivan Đikić još je 5. studenoga procijenio kako ćemo na kraju ovog mjeseca imati 1500 mrtvih od koronavirusa i da će dnevno umirati pedesetak zaraženih. Apelirao je i pisao pisma Banskim dvorima u kojima je upozoravao da je situacija s COVID-om 19 alarmantna te da je krajnje vrijeme da se uozbiljimo. Ponavljao je kako nitko ne traži lockdown, ali da se ne smije licitirati s mjerama.

Jasno je već tada rekao da je situacija izvan kontrole, da se raspao sustav praćenja kontakata te da Vlada mora hitno napraviti plan.

Premijer Andrej Plenković brzo mu je odgovorio kako su mjere adekvatne situaciji. Rekao mu je također i da imamo "znatno, znatno, znatno mali rast" zaraženih tijekom cijelog tjedna.

"Osjetan pad, ne morate biti neki veliki matematičar, da vidite što se događa, samo usporedite što se događalo prošli tjedan, a što sad", optimistično je Plenković komentirao novinarima u Vladi.

Glavni epidemiolog i član Nacionalnog stožera Krunoslav Capak na pitanje kako komentira Đikićeve prognoze da će do kraja mjeseca biti 1500 mrtvih, gostujući u RTL Direktu kazao je: "Ja mislim da je ta brojka pretjerana, da do te brojke neće doći, ali apsolutno pratimo situaciju i pripremamo se za takve scenarije."

Jučer smo imamli rekordan broj novih slučajeva ( 3603 nova na 10.194 testirana ), a umrlo je čak 56 osoba. Ukupan broj umrlih na do jučer bio je 1501, a još je pet dana do kraja studenoga.

Trenutno je čak 2.136 pacijenta na bolničkom liječenju, od toga je na respiratoru njih 240.

Kad smo u rujnu pisali o prognozi Neovisnog instituta za metriku i procjene u zdravstvu (IHME) iz Washingtona, također je bila lavina negativnih reakcija i tumačenja kako se javnost bombardira nerealnim brojkama. 

No, njihove procjene ne samo da su se ostvarile nego smo ih i debelo prebacili. Uz scenarij pridržavanja tadašnjih epidemioloških mjera ili ako bi došlo do njihova ublažavanja IHME je tada prognozirao da će do 1. siječnja 2021. u Hrvatskoj u prosjeku dnevno umirati 52 zaražene osobe, a mi smo sad već na 56.

Isto tako predvidjeli su da će, po tom scenariju, do istog datuma u zemlji biti 1.267 umrlih, a već sad ih je preko tisuću i petsto.

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Danas imamo 1501 preminulog, a studeni još traje... 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Znanstvenik Ivan Đikić još je 5. studenoga procijenio kako ćemo na kraju ovog mjeseca imati 1500 mrtvih od koronavirusa i da će dnevno umirati pedesetak zaraženih. Apelirao je i pisao pisma Banskim dvorima u kojima je upozoravao da je situacija s COVID-om 19 alarmantna te da je krajnje vrijeme da se uozbiljimo. Ponavljao je kako nitko ne traži lockdown, ali da se ne smije licitirati s mjerama.

Jasno je već tada rekao da je situacija izvan kontrole, da se raspao sustav praćenja kontakata te da Vlada mora hitno napraviti plan.

Premijer Andrej Plenković brzo mu je odgovorio kako su mjere adekvatne situaciji. Rekao mu je također i da imamo "znatno, znatno, znatno mali rast" zaraženih tijekom cijelog tjedna.

"Osjetan pad, ne morate biti neki veliki matematičar, da vidite što se događa, samo usporedite što se događalo prošli tjedan, a što sad", optimistično je Plenković komentirao novinarima u Vladi.

Glavni epidemiolog i član Nacionalnog stožera Krunoslav Capak na pitanje kako komentira Đikićeve prognoze da će do kraja mjeseca biti 1500 mrtvih, gostujući u RTL Direktu kazao je: "Ja mislim da je ta brojka pretjerana, da do te brojke neće doći, ali apsolutno pratimo situaciju i pripremamo se za takve scenarije."

Jučer smo imamli rekordan broj novih slučajeva ( 3603 nova na 10.194 testirana ), a umrlo je čak 56 osoba. Ukupan broj umrlih na do jučer bio je 1501, a još je pet dana do kraja studenoga.

Trenutno je čak 2.136 pacijenta na bolničkom liječenju, od toga je na respiratoru njih 240.

Kad smo u rujnu pisali o prognozi Neovisnog instituta za metriku i procjene u zdravstvu (IHME) iz Washingtona, također je bila lavina negativnih reakcija i tumačenja kako se javnost bombardira nerealnim brojkama. 

No, njihove procjene ne samo da su se ostvarile nego smo ih i debelo prebacili. Uz scenarij pridržavanja tadašnjih epidemioloških mjera ili ako bi došlo do njihova ublažavanja IHME je tada prognozirao da će do 1. siječnja 2021. u Hrvatskoj u prosjeku dnevno umirati 52 zaražene osobe, a mi smo sad već na 56.

Isto tako predvidjeli su da će, po tom scenariju, do istog datuma u zemlji biti 1.267 umrlih, a već sad ih je preko tisuću i petsto.

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ForumIZVAN KONTROLE

Capak je Đikićevu prognozu o 1500 smrtnih slučajeva do kraja studenog ocjenjivao pretjeranom. Danas imamo 1501 preminulog, a studeni još traje...

Piše Anita Belak Krile/SD
25. studenog 2020. - 15:23
14247094
Jakov Prkić/Arhiv/Cropix

Znanstvenik Ivan Đikić još je 5. studenoga procijenio kako ćemo na kraju ovog mjeseca imati 1500 mrtvih od koronavirusa i da će dnevno umirati pedesetak zaraženih. Apelirao je i pisao pisma Banskim dvorima u kojima je upozoravao da je situacija s COVID-om 19 alarmantna te da je krajnje vrijeme da se uozbiljimo. Ponavljao je kako nitko ne traži lockdown, ali da se ne smije licitirati s mjerama.

Jasno je već tada rekao da je situacija izvan kontrole, da se raspao sustav praćenja kontakata te da Vlada mora hitno napraviti plan.

Premijer Andrej Plenković brzo mu je odgovorio kako su mjere adekvatne situaciji. Rekao mu je također i da imamo "znatno, znatno, znatno mali rast" zaraženih tijekom cijelog tjedna.

"Osjetan pad, ne morate biti neki veliki matematičar, da vidite što se događa, samo usporedite što se događalo prošli tjedan, a što sad", optimistično je Plenković komentirao novinarima u Vladi.

Glavni epidemiolog i član Nacionalnog stožera Krunoslav Capak na pitanje kako komentira Đikićeve prognoze da će do kraja mjeseca biti 1500 mrtvih, gostujući u RTL Direktu kazao je: "Ja mislim da je ta brojka pretjerana, da do te brojke neće doći, ali apsolutno pratimo situaciju i pripremamo se za takve scenarije."

Jučer smo imamli rekordan broj novih slučajeva ( 3603 nova na 10.194 testirana ), a umrlo je čak 56 osoba. Ukupan broj umrlih na do jučer bio je 1501, a još je pet dana do kraja studenoga.

Trenutno je čak 2.136 pacijenta na bolničkom liječenju, od toga je na respiratoru njih 240.

Kad smo u rujnu pisali o prognozi Neovisnog instituta za metriku i procjene u zdravstvu (IHME) iz Washingtona, također je bila lavina negativnih reakcija i tumačenja kako se javnost bombardira nerealnim brojkama. 

No, njihove procjene ne samo da su se ostvarile nego smo ih i debelo prebacili. Uz scenarij pridržavanja tadašnjih epidemioloških mjera ili ako bi došlo do njihova ublažavanja IHME je tada prognozirao da će do 1. siječnja 2021. u Hrvatskoj u prosjeku dnevno umirati 52 zaražene osobe, a mi smo sad već na 56.

Isto tako predvidjeli su da će, po tom scenariju, do istog datuma u zemlji biti 1.267 umrlih, a već sad ih je preko tisuću i petsto.

#IVAN ĐIKIĆ#KRUNOSLAV CAPAK
11. svibanj 2024 17:39