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[title] => Hoće li ovo ljeto biti najtoplije od kada postoje mjerenja? Evo što kažu znanstvenicI
[alias] => hoce-li-ovo-ljeto-biti-najtoplije-od-kada-postoje-mjerenja-evo-sto-kazu-znanstvenici
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Novi rekord globalne prosječne temperature mogao bi biti oboren ove ili sljedeće godine, odnosno u vrijeme kad se - uz sve ono što nam donose klimatske promjene - vrati i fenomen zvan El Niño, odnosno Dječak.
Klimatski modeli sugeriraju da će nakon tri godine pod utjecajem Djevojčice (La Niña) u Tihom oceanu, što su prilike koje općenito blago snižavaju globalne temperature, svijet doživjeti povratak na topliji pandan vremenskog obrasca koji također narušava normalne uvjete na Pacifiku.
Normalni uvjeti podrazumijevaju puhanje vjetrova (pasata) duž ekvatora prema zapadu; ti vjetrovi topliju vodu iz područja Južne Amerike odnose prema Aziji. Da bi zamijenila “odlazeću” toplu vodu, iz dubina se diže hladna voda.
Taj ciklus mogu narušiti dva suprotna vremenska obrasca - Dječak i Djevojčica, odnosno El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Te južne oscilacije obično traju od devet do 12 mjeseci, no mogu potrajati godinama; javljaju se u prosjeku svake dvije do sedam godina, ali pravilnog i predvidljivog ciklusa nema.
Tijekom El Niña pasati slabe, a masa tople vode, umjesto prema Aziji, “gura se” na istok, ka zapadnim obalama Amerikâ. La Niña djeluje suprotno - vjetrovi su jači, guraju više tople vode prema Aziji. Uz zapadnu obalu Amerika povećava se uzdizanje iz dubina, donoseći hladnu vodu bogatu hranjivim tvarima na površinu. Krajnje pojednostavljeno, Dječak “grije”, Djevojčica “hladi”, globalno utječući na vremenske prilike, ekosustave i gospodarstva izazivajući šumske požare, poplave, jače sezone uragana itd.
Najtoplija zabilježena godina na svijetu bila je 2016., što se podudara s jakim El Niñom, no klimatske promjene potaknule su ekstremne temperature i u godinama bez tog fenomena. Posljednjih osam godina bilo je osam najtoplijih u svijetu, što odražava dugoročniji trend zagrijavanja, potaknut emisijama stakleničkih plinova.
Friederike Otto, viša predavačica na Grantham institutu Imperial Collegea u Londonu, rekla je za Reuters da bi temperature izazvane El Niñom mogle pogoršati učinke klimatskih promjena koje zemlje već doživljavaju - uključujući jake toplinske valove, sušu i šumske požare.
- Ako se El Niño razvije, postoji dobra šansa da će 2023. biti još toplija od 2016. - s obzirom na to da se svijet nastavio zagrijavati dok ljudi nastavljaju sagorijevati fosilna goriva, rekla je Otto.
Znanstvenici iz programa EU Copernicus objavili su izvještaj u kojem procjenjuju klimatske ekstreme koje je svijet doživio prošle godine, pete najtoplije godine u povijesti. Europa je 2022. doživjela svoje najtoplije zabilježeno ljeto, ekstremne kiše potaknute klimatskim promjenama uzrokovale katastrofalne poplave u Pakistanu, dok je u veljači razina leda na Antarktiku pala na rekordno nisku razinu. Svjetska prosječna globalna temperatura sada je, inače, 1,2°C viša nego u predindustrijsko doba, a unatoč tome što je većina najvećih svjetskih emitera obećala da će s vremenom smanjiti svoje neto emisije na nulu, globalne emisije CO2 prošle su godine nastavile rasti.
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Novi rekord globalne prosječne temperature mogao bi biti oboren ove ili sljedeće godine, odnosno u vrijeme kad se - uz sve ono što nam donose klimatske promjene - vrati i fenomen zvan El Niño, odnosno Dječak.
Klimatski modeli sugeriraju da će nakon tri godine pod utjecajem Djevojčice (La Niña) u Tihom oceanu, što su prilike koje općenito blago snižavaju globalne temperature, svijet doživjeti povratak na topliji pandan vremenskog obrasca koji također narušava normalne uvjete na Pacifiku.
Normalni uvjeti podrazumijevaju puhanje vjetrova (pasata) duž ekvatora prema zapadu; ti vjetrovi topliju vodu iz područja Južne Amerike odnose prema Aziji. Da bi zamijenila “odlazeću” toplu vodu, iz dubina se diže hladna voda.
Taj ciklus mogu narušiti dva suprotna vremenska obrasca - Dječak i Djevojčica, odnosno El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Te južne oscilacije obično traju od devet do 12 mjeseci, no mogu potrajati godinama; javljaju se u prosjeku svake dvije do sedam godina, ali pravilnog i predvidljivog ciklusa nema.
Tijekom El Niña pasati slabe, a masa tople vode, umjesto prema Aziji, “gura se” na istok, ka zapadnim obalama Amerikâ. La Niña djeluje suprotno - vjetrovi su jači, guraju više tople vode prema Aziji. Uz zapadnu obalu Amerika povećava se uzdizanje iz dubina, donoseći hladnu vodu bogatu hranjivim tvarima na površinu. Krajnje pojednostavljeno, Dječak “grije”, Djevojčica “hladi”, globalno utječući na vremenske prilike, ekosustave i gospodarstva izazivajući šumske požare, poplave, jače sezone uragana itd.
Najtoplija zabilježena godina na svijetu bila je 2016., što se podudara s jakim El Niñom, no klimatske promjene potaknule su ekstremne temperature i u godinama bez tog fenomena. Posljednjih osam godina bilo je osam najtoplijih u svijetu, što odražava dugoročniji trend zagrijavanja, potaknut emisijama stakleničkih plinova.
Friederike Otto, viša predavačica na Grantham institutu Imperial Collegea u Londonu, rekla je za Reuters da bi temperature izazvane El Niñom mogle pogoršati učinke klimatskih promjena koje zemlje već doživljavaju - uključujući jake toplinske valove, sušu i šumske požare.
- Ako se El Niño razvije, postoji dobra šansa da će 2023. biti još toplija od 2016. - s obzirom na to da se svijet nastavio zagrijavati dok ljudi nastavljaju sagorijevati fosilna goriva, rekla je Otto.
Znanstvenici iz programa EU Copernicus objavili su izvještaj u kojem procjenjuju klimatske ekstreme koje je svijet doživio prošle godine, pete najtoplije godine u povijesti. Europa je 2022. doživjela svoje najtoplije zabilježeno ljeto, ekstremne kiše potaknute klimatskim promjenama uzrokovale katastrofalne poplave u Pakistanu, dok je u veljači razina leda na Antarktiku pala na rekordno nisku razinu. Svjetska prosječna globalna temperatura sada je, inače, 1,2°C viša nego u predindustrijsko doba, a unatoč tome što je većina najvećih svjetskih emitera obećala da će s vremenom smanjiti svoje neto emisije na nulu, globalne emisije CO2 prošle su godine nastavile rasti.
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15. svibanj 2024 23:04
