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[title] => Epidemiolog Ozren Polašek: Rizik za pojavu novih sojeva raste tamo gdje je velik broj zaraženih. Vidjeli ste što se dogodilo u Brazilu
[alias] => epidemiolog-ozren-polasek-rizik-za-pojavu-novih-sojeva-raste-tamo-gdje-je-velik-broj-zarazenih-vidjeli-ste-sto-se-dogodilo-u-brazilu
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Ozren Polašek, genetički epidemiolog i član Vladina znanstvenog savjeta, bio je gost Dnevnika N1 televizije gge je govorio o epidemiološkoj situaciji u Hrvatskoj
Od ponedjeljka, 1. ožujka, u Hrvatsko je došlo do blagog popuštanja mjera, na što se osvrnuo i Polašek.
“S psihološkog i gospodarskog stajališta, jasno je da smo krenuli u otvaranje, a s druge strane gotovo je izgledno da će takva situacija dovesti do određenog porasta slučajeva. Sljedeća dva tjedna su kritična pa ćemo vidjeti u kojem smjeru idemo”, kazao je Polašek.
“Sada će nam trebati možda i više od dva tjedna da vidimo što se događa s epidemijom. U ovom trenutku smo u povoljnoj situaciji i u populaciji imamo vrlo malo virusa u usporedbi s nekim situacijama iz prošlosti. Moguće je da ćemo vidjeti manje brojke, ali pažljivo se promatra obrazac epidemije i na gotovo dnevnih odluka se donose pravila i smjernice”, istaknuo je Polašek.
Pojava novih sojeva
Polašek se osvrnuo i na pojavu novih sojeva koronavirusa.
“Rizik za pojavu novih sojeva veći je u situacijama u kojim je epidemija loša kontrolirana, u kojima postoji veliki broj ljudi koji su zaraženi. Imamo situaciju iz Brazila koji je bio poprilično teško pogođen, pa imamo brazilski soj. Istu stvar vidimo i u Južnoafričkoj Republici. Pojava tih sojeva ili varijanti ne znači nužno da je to problem ili da nam to predstavlja situaciju koja nas treba zabrinjavati, ali moguće je da se neki od tih sojeva prikažu drugačije od ovog osnovnog soja na koji smo navikli”, pojasnio je Polašek, dodajući da je potrebno biti pažljiv.
Istaknuo je da bilo koji novi soj može imati drugačija svojstva.
“Stvara se niz novih sojeva, ali većina ih je manje važna od ovakvih sojeva, oni se sporije šire i nestaju iz populacije. Međutim, u manjem broju slučajeva događaju se preslagivanja i rekombinacije koje mogu dovesti do teže kliničke slike ili bržeg širenja. Još uvijek nemamo točno izmjerene pokazatelje za nove sojeve jer su i sojevi dinamička struktura. Za sad vidimo da se neki sojevi šire dosta brže. Govori se dosta o južnoafričkom soju koji bi mogao biti i nešto teže kliničke slike, ali nemamo potpuno pouzdane znanstvene pokazatelje”, objasnio je.
Utjecaj cjepiva na nove sojeve
Polašek je komentirao i kako cijepljenje djeluje na nove varijante virusa.
“Neki sojevi se ponašaju malo drugačije u kombinaciji s pojedinim cjepivima tako da se i u preliminarnim istraživanjima prijavljuje da neka cjepiva nude možda nešto manju zaštitu od zaražavanja u odnosu na neke sojeve, ali upravo je krenuo niz takvih ispitivanja koji će nam dati pouzdanije podatke. Čini se da većina cjepiva protiv većine sojeva štiti od najtežih kliničkih ishoda – hospitalizacije i smrti”, pojasnio je Polašek.
“I dalje nam je cjepivo jedini izlaz iz ove epidemije”, dodao je.
Polašek je istaknuo da je za sada teško odgovoriti na pitanje hoćemo li se protiv covida-19 morati cijepiti kao i svake godine.
“Očekivanja se kreću od toga da ćemo se morati svake sezone ili cijepiti ili docjepljivati do onih očekivanja koja kažu da bi se docjepljivanje moglo događati svako nekoliko godina. Najoptimističniji među nama zagovaraju čak i ideju da bi stanični imunitet mogao biti kritičan i da bi neka cjepiva kod određenih ljudi možda mogla izazvati i doživotnu zaštitu”, naveo je Polašek.
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Ozren Polašek, genetički epidemiolog i član Vladina znanstvenog savjeta, bio je gost Dnevnika N1 televizije gge je govorio o epidemiološkoj situaciji u Hrvatskoj
Od ponedjeljka, 1. ožujka, u Hrvatsko je došlo do blagog popuštanja mjera, na što se osvrnuo i Polašek.
“S psihološkog i gospodarskog stajališta, jasno je da smo krenuli u otvaranje, a s druge strane gotovo je izgledno da će takva situacija dovesti do određenog porasta slučajeva. Sljedeća dva tjedna su kritična pa ćemo vidjeti u kojem smjeru idemo”, kazao je Polašek.
“Sada će nam trebati možda i više od dva tjedna da vidimo što se događa s epidemijom. U ovom trenutku smo u povoljnoj situaciji i u populaciji imamo vrlo malo virusa u usporedbi s nekim situacijama iz prošlosti. Moguće je da ćemo vidjeti manje brojke, ali pažljivo se promatra obrazac epidemije i na gotovo dnevnih odluka se donose pravila i smjernice”, istaknuo je Polašek.
Pojava novih sojeva
Polašek se osvrnuo i na pojavu novih sojeva koronavirusa.
“Rizik za pojavu novih sojeva veći je u situacijama u kojim je epidemija loša kontrolirana, u kojima postoji veliki broj ljudi koji su zaraženi. Imamo situaciju iz Brazila koji je bio poprilično teško pogođen, pa imamo brazilski soj. Istu stvar vidimo i u Južnoafričkoj Republici. Pojava tih sojeva ili varijanti ne znači nužno da je to problem ili da nam to predstavlja situaciju koja nas treba zabrinjavati, ali moguće je da se neki od tih sojeva prikažu drugačije od ovog osnovnog soja na koji smo navikli”, pojasnio je Polašek, dodajući da je potrebno biti pažljiv.
Istaknuo je da bilo koji novi soj može imati drugačija svojstva.
“Stvara se niz novih sojeva, ali većina ih je manje važna od ovakvih sojeva, oni se sporije šire i nestaju iz populacije. Međutim, u manjem broju slučajeva događaju se preslagivanja i rekombinacije koje mogu dovesti do teže kliničke slike ili bržeg širenja. Još uvijek nemamo točno izmjerene pokazatelje za nove sojeve jer su i sojevi dinamička struktura. Za sad vidimo da se neki sojevi šire dosta brže. Govori se dosta o južnoafričkom soju koji bi mogao biti i nešto teže kliničke slike, ali nemamo potpuno pouzdane znanstvene pokazatelje”, objasnio je.
Utjecaj cjepiva na nove sojeve
Polašek je komentirao i kako cijepljenje djeluje na nove varijante virusa.
“Neki sojevi se ponašaju malo drugačije u kombinaciji s pojedinim cjepivima tako da se i u preliminarnim istraživanjima prijavljuje da neka cjepiva nude možda nešto manju zaštitu od zaražavanja u odnosu na neke sojeve, ali upravo je krenuo niz takvih ispitivanja koji će nam dati pouzdanije podatke. Čini se da većina cjepiva protiv većine sojeva štiti od najtežih kliničkih ishoda – hospitalizacije i smrti”, pojasnio je Polašek.
“I dalje nam je cjepivo jedini izlaz iz ove epidemije”, dodao je.
Polašek je istaknuo da je za sada teško odgovoriti na pitanje hoćemo li se protiv covida-19 morati cijepiti kao i svake godine.
“Očekivanja se kreću od toga da ćemo se morati svake sezone ili cijepiti ili docjepljivati do onih očekivanja koja kažu da bi se docjepljivanje moglo događati svako nekoliko godina. Najoptimističniji među nama zagovaraju čak i ideju da bi stanični imunitet mogao biti kritičan i da bi neka cjepiva kod određenih ljudi možda mogla izazvati i doživotnu zaštitu”, naveo je Polašek.
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12. svibanj 2024 00:58
