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[title] => Dr. Diana Mayer nema utješnih riječi kad je riječ o širenju novog vala: Daj Bože da griješim, ali nakon Uskrsa možemo očekivati i 3000 zaraženih dnevno!
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Hoće li lijepo vrijeme koje se najavljuje u iduća dva tjedna možda smanjiti broj zaraženih, s obzirom da će ljudi više boraviti na otvorenom pa je i mogućnost širenja zaraze manja, pitali smo dr. sc. Dijanu Mayer, epidemiologinju Hrvatskog zavoda za javno zdravstvo.
– Mislim da se broj zaraženih neće smanjivati, naprotiv, možemo očekivati da će i dalje rasti s obzirom na opuštanje i masovna okupljanja. Pogotovo s dolaskom Uskrsa i brojnost obiteljskih druženja i drugih okupljanja. Teško je reći ljudima da se za blagdane okupe samo članovi uže obitelji i da to bude mali broj ljudi, isto kao što je to teško, gotovo nemoguće, kontrolirati. Mi samo možemo apelirati na svijest građana, ali teško je očekivati da će nas većina poslušati. Već sada imamo podatke o povećanom broju ulazaka naših građana iz Njemačke, Italije i Austrije koji dolaze za Uskrs u Hrvatsku. Došli su tjedan dana ranije kako bi izbjegli strože kontrole na granici koje su najavljene za 1. travnja ili mogući "lockdown" – kaže dr. Mayer.
Izbjegavanje zatvaranja
Svi ti ljudi dolaze, napominje doktorica, upravo da bi se družili sa svojim obiteljima, neki i nakon više od godinu dana, jer nisu bili ni za lanjski Uskrs i željni su susreta sa svojim najbližima. Pa ne bi putovali iz Berlina satima da bi stajali izolirani u četiri zida, naravno da će se družiti na otvorenom, na terasama i teško da će to biti samo s članovima uže obitelji.
– Ja to razumijem, ljudima je grozno, svima nam je teško, svi već pucaju po šavovima i svima nam je dosta ove pandemije. I mi liječnici smo na rubu snaga, ali, nažalost, zbog toga, kao i sve prisutnijega britanskog soja virusa koji se brže širi, zaraza će rasti – upozorava dr. Mayer, koja očekuje da će nakon Uskrsa dnevno biti i više od 3000 zaraženih.
– Daj Bože da sam u krivu, ali skeptična sam. Sad treba vidjeti koliko će zaraženih biti u utorak, nakon Uskrsnog ponedjeljka, ali mislim da će to biti velike brojke, a s obzirom da je inkubacija 14 dana, možemo u travnju očekivati dramatičan porast. Voljela bih da vam mogu dati optimističniju prognozu, ali ne mogu reći nešto što bi ljudi rado čuli, jer nije realno. Nisam klaun – kaže dr. Mayer.
Njezino mišljenje dijeli i prof. dr. sc. Ozren Polašek, član Savjeta predsjednika Vlade i profesor javnog zdravstva na splitskome Medicinskom fakultetu.
Oslabio im imunitet
– Bojim se da nemamo puno prostora za optimizam. Ne vidim razloga za poboljšanje situacije osim ako ne pojačamo mjere. Ako su i postojale nade da će se s dolaskom toplijih dana brojke početi smanjivati, to se povezivalo s većom procijepljenošću stanovništva. No, to se nije dogodilo. Nažalost, iz tjedna u tjedan bilježimo rast od 30 posto, što je prilično loše. To doduše nije tako dramatičan trend kakav je imala, recimo, Češka, ali svakako je uzlazni, a takav će vjerojatno i ostati u ovo blagdansko vrijeme – ističe prof. Polašek.
– Najgore je to što je u Hrvatskoj tek osam posto procijepljenog stanovništva, što je jako malo. Osim toga, treba podsjetiti da imunitet traje nekoliko mjeseci, tako da je i kod onih koji su obolijevali tijekom zime i stekli nekakav imunitet on vjerojatno već oslabio. Iskreno, volio bih da me brojke demantiraju – zaključuje dr. Polašek.
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Hoće li lijepo vrijeme koje se najavljuje u iduća dva tjedna možda smanjiti broj zaraženih, s obzirom da će ljudi više boraviti na otvorenom pa je i mogućnost širenja zaraze manja, pitali smo dr. sc. Dijanu Mayer, epidemiologinju Hrvatskog zavoda za javno zdravstvo.
– Mislim da se broj zaraženih neće smanjivati, naprotiv, možemo očekivati da će i dalje rasti s obzirom na opuštanje i masovna okupljanja. Pogotovo s dolaskom Uskrsa i brojnost obiteljskih druženja i drugih okupljanja. Teško je reći ljudima da se za blagdane okupe samo članovi uže obitelji i da to bude mali broj ljudi, isto kao što je to teško, gotovo nemoguće, kontrolirati. Mi samo možemo apelirati na svijest građana, ali teško je očekivati da će nas većina poslušati. Već sada imamo podatke o povećanom broju ulazaka naših građana iz Njemačke, Italije i Austrije koji dolaze za Uskrs u Hrvatsku. Došli su tjedan dana ranije kako bi izbjegli strože kontrole na granici koje su najavljene za 1. travnja ili mogući "lockdown" – kaže dr. Mayer.
Izbjegavanje zatvaranja
Svi ti ljudi dolaze, napominje doktorica, upravo da bi se družili sa svojim obiteljima, neki i nakon više od godinu dana, jer nisu bili ni za lanjski Uskrs i željni su susreta sa svojim najbližima. Pa ne bi putovali iz Berlina satima da bi stajali izolirani u četiri zida, naravno da će se družiti na otvorenom, na terasama i teško da će to biti samo s članovima uže obitelji.
– Ja to razumijem, ljudima je grozno, svima nam je teško, svi već pucaju po šavovima i svima nam je dosta ove pandemije. I mi liječnici smo na rubu snaga, ali, nažalost, zbog toga, kao i sve prisutnijega britanskog soja virusa koji se brže širi, zaraza će rasti – upozorava dr. Mayer, koja očekuje da će nakon Uskrsa dnevno biti i više od 3000 zaraženih.
– Daj Bože da sam u krivu, ali skeptična sam. Sad treba vidjeti koliko će zaraženih biti u utorak, nakon Uskrsnog ponedjeljka, ali mislim da će to biti velike brojke, a s obzirom da je inkubacija 14 dana, možemo u travnju očekivati dramatičan porast. Voljela bih da vam mogu dati optimističniju prognozu, ali ne mogu reći nešto što bi ljudi rado čuli, jer nije realno. Nisam klaun – kaže dr. Mayer.
Njezino mišljenje dijeli i prof. dr. sc. Ozren Polašek, član Savjeta predsjednika Vlade i profesor javnog zdravstva na splitskome Medicinskom fakultetu.
Oslabio im imunitet
– Bojim se da nemamo puno prostora za optimizam. Ne vidim razloga za poboljšanje situacije osim ako ne pojačamo mjere. Ako su i postojale nade da će se s dolaskom toplijih dana brojke početi smanjivati, to se povezivalo s većom procijepljenošću stanovništva. No, to se nije dogodilo. Nažalost, iz tjedna u tjedan bilježimo rast od 30 posto, što je prilično loše. To doduše nije tako dramatičan trend kakav je imala, recimo, Češka, ali svakako je uzlazni, a takav će vjerojatno i ostati u ovo blagdansko vrijeme – ističe prof. Polašek.
– Najgore je to što je u Hrvatskoj tek osam posto procijepljenog stanovništva, što je jako malo. Osim toga, treba podsjetiti da imunitet traje nekoliko mjeseci, tako da je i kod onih koji su obolijevali tijekom zime i stekli nekakav imunitet on vjerojatno već oslabio. Iskreno, volio bih da me brojke demantiraju – zaključuje dr. Polašek.
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11. svibanj 2024 06:24
