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[title] => Može li Hrvatska izdržati novi lockdown? Država bi ga preživjela, većinu privatnika bi dotukao, a posljedice bi osjetili svi
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Bi li nas novi lockdown sve pomeo?
Dotukao ekonomiju, uništio ugostitelje, zaprijetio ionako tanašnom standardu hrvatskih građana. Na mala vrata u zemlju uveo inflaciju. Ima li Hrvatska, naposljetku, uopće financijske snage to sve preživjeti?
Poduzetnik i investitor Saša Cvetojević smatra da financijske snage možda i ima. Ali je siguran da će se posljedice odraziti na budućnost svih u zemlji.
- Država uvijek nađe način da se negdje zaduži i nešto preraspodjeli, ali pitanje je hoće li poduzetnici i građani imati snage to preživjeti. Nemaju svi, to je sigurno – upozorava Cvetojević. Država kontrolira tijek novca i zato joj je, smatra naš sugovornik, lakše. To je pokazalo, podsjeća on, i iskustvo krizne 2008. godine, kao i prošlogodišnji lockdown.
Dovoljno hrane
- Država s javnim sektorom, ministarstvima, agencijama i uredima može izdržati sedam lockdowna. Većina nas u privatnom sektoru neće moći preživjeti novo zatvaranje. To će nas dotući – procjenjuje Cvetojević.
Makroekonomist prof. dr. Ljubo Jurčić smatra da pravo pitanje nije ima li hrvatska ekonomija snage preživjeti još jedan lockdown, nego koliko će ona nakon njega nisko pasti.
- Država ne može bankrotirati, iako nas posljednje vrijeme neki plaše i takvim scenarijem. Grčka i Argentina proživjele su i gora vremena nego što je ovo, pa te države i dalje postoje. Jedino što njihovi građani žive lošije. S druge stane, kada neka tvrtka bankrotira, nje više nema. U tome je krucijalna razlika – ističe predsjednik Hrvatskog društva ekonomista.
Problem Hrvatske je, prema njegovu mišljenju, što nema dovoljno vlastite proizvodnje da u nekom takvom novom lockdownu na europskoj i svjetskoj razini osigura dovoljno hrane za svoje stanovnike.
- Danas više nije pitanje hoćeš li godišnje moći kupiti pet košulja i dvoje hlače, nego hoće li biti dovoljno hrane i lijekova za preživljavanje potpunog lockdowna. Nažalost, Hrvatska vlada od početka pandemije bila je potpuno nesposobna napraviti bilancu što na hrvatskom teritoriju možemo napraviti, od hrane do lijekova. Veliki „sposobnjakovići“ su potpuno uništili Imunološki zavod, ali i poljoprivredu, proizvodnju mlijeka, mesa... Hrvatska danas uvozi 50 posto mlijeka i 50 posto mesa, što je stvarno porazan podatak – ocjenjuje Jurčić.
Inflacija nije strašna
Inflacije se, prema njegovu mišljenju, ne treba toliko bojati. Do nje naprosto neće doći ako nitko ništa ne kupuje.
- Potražnja za automobilima je pala 30 posto, pala je i potražnja za namještajem ili košuljama. Potražnja stvara inflaciju. A ako potražnje nema, nema ni inflacije – pojašnjava Jurčić.
Covid-19 pandemija, smatra on, još uvijek nije pod kontrolom. Cijepljenje je počelo, ali ide sporije nego se planiralo. A novi sojevi generiraju novu nesigurnost.
Ako se pandemija produlji još godinu dana, osnovna roba koja će se tražiti su hrana i lijekovi. Cijene će, prema Jurčićevoj procjeni, u takvom scenariju rasti, a BDP se neće tako lako oporaviti. No, to nije glavni problem Hrvatske.
- Ključno će biti jesmo li se od početka pandemije uspjeli organizirati da, ako dođe do jačeg lockdowna, možemo zadovoljiti minimalne potrebe naše zemlje kada je riječ o hrani, lijekovima, energentima i sigurnosti. Sada ulazimo u fazu u kojoj su odgovori na ova pitanja važniji od toga kako stojimo s padom BDP-a – zaključuje Jurčić.
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[cleanTitle] => Može li Hrvatska izdržati novi lockdown? Država bi ga preživjela, većinu privatnika bi dotukao, a posljedice bi osjetili svi
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Bi li nas novi lockdown sve pomeo?
Dotukao ekonomiju, uništio ugostitelje, zaprijetio ionako tanašnom standardu hrvatskih građana. Na mala vrata u zemlju uveo inflaciju. Ima li Hrvatska, naposljetku, uopće financijske snage to sve preživjeti?
Poduzetnik i investitor Saša Cvetojević smatra da financijske snage možda i ima. Ali je siguran da će se posljedice odraziti na budućnost svih u zemlji.
- Država uvijek nađe način da se negdje zaduži i nešto preraspodjeli, ali pitanje je hoće li poduzetnici i građani imati snage to preživjeti. Nemaju svi, to je sigurno – upozorava Cvetojević. Država kontrolira tijek novca i zato joj je, smatra naš sugovornik, lakše. To je pokazalo, podsjeća on, i iskustvo krizne 2008. godine, kao i prošlogodišnji lockdown.
Dovoljno hrane
- Država s javnim sektorom, ministarstvima, agencijama i uredima može izdržati sedam lockdowna. Većina nas u privatnom sektoru neće moći preživjeti novo zatvaranje. To će nas dotući – procjenjuje Cvetojević.
Makroekonomist prof. dr. Ljubo Jurčić smatra da pravo pitanje nije ima li hrvatska ekonomija snage preživjeti još jedan lockdown, nego koliko će ona nakon njega nisko pasti.
- Država ne može bankrotirati, iako nas posljednje vrijeme neki plaše i takvim scenarijem. Grčka i Argentina proživjele su i gora vremena nego što je ovo, pa te države i dalje postoje. Jedino što njihovi građani žive lošije. S druge stane, kada neka tvrtka bankrotira, nje više nema. U tome je krucijalna razlika – ističe predsjednik Hrvatskog društva ekonomista.
Problem Hrvatske je, prema njegovu mišljenju, što nema dovoljno vlastite proizvodnje da u nekom takvom novom lockdownu na europskoj i svjetskoj razini osigura dovoljno hrane za svoje stanovnike.
- Danas više nije pitanje hoćeš li godišnje moći kupiti pet košulja i dvoje hlače, nego hoće li biti dovoljno hrane i lijekova za preživljavanje potpunog lockdowna. Nažalost, Hrvatska vlada od početka pandemije bila je potpuno nesposobna napraviti bilancu što na hrvatskom teritoriju možemo napraviti, od hrane do lijekova. Veliki „sposobnjakovići“ su potpuno uništili Imunološki zavod, ali i poljoprivredu, proizvodnju mlijeka, mesa... Hrvatska danas uvozi 50 posto mlijeka i 50 posto mesa, što je stvarno porazan podatak – ocjenjuje Jurčić.
Inflacija nije strašna
Inflacije se, prema njegovu mišljenju, ne treba toliko bojati. Do nje naprosto neće doći ako nitko ništa ne kupuje.
- Potražnja za automobilima je pala 30 posto, pala je i potražnja za namještajem ili košuljama. Potražnja stvara inflaciju. A ako potražnje nema, nema ni inflacije – pojašnjava Jurčić.
Covid-19 pandemija, smatra on, još uvijek nije pod kontrolom. Cijepljenje je počelo, ali ide sporije nego se planiralo. A novi sojevi generiraju novu nesigurnost.
Ako se pandemija produlji još godinu dana, osnovna roba koja će se tražiti su hrana i lijekovi. Cijene će, prema Jurčićevoj procjeni, u takvom scenariju rasti, a BDP se neće tako lako oporaviti. No, to nije glavni problem Hrvatske.
- Ključno će biti jesmo li se od početka pandemije uspjeli organizirati da, ako dođe do jačeg lockdowna, možemo zadovoljiti minimalne potrebe naše zemlje kada je riječ o hrani, lijekovima, energentima i sigurnosti. Sada ulazimo u fazu u kojoj su odgovori na ova pitanja važniji od toga kako stojimo s padom BDP-a – zaključuje Jurčić.
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15. svibanj 2024 16:10
