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[title] => NASA: Zbog El Nina i klimatskih promjena porasla je globalna razina mora
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Globalna prosječna razina mora porasla je za oko 0,76 centimetara od 2022. do 2023. godine, što je gotovo četiri puta više nego prethodne godine, objavila je NASA u četvrtak, pripisujući "značajan skok" snažnom fenomenu El Ninu i klimatskim promjenama.
Analiza koju je provela NASA temelji se na više od 30 godina satelitskih promatranja, s početnim lansiranjem satelita 1992., a posljednjim 2020.
Sve u svemu, razine mora porasle su za oko 10 cm od 1993. Stopa rasta također se ubrzala, više nego udvostručivši se s 0,17 cm godišnje 1993., na trenutnu stopu od 0,43 cm godišnje.
"Trenutne stope ubrzanja znače da smo na putu da dodamo još 20 centimetara globalne srednje razine mora do 2050.", rekla je Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, direktorica NASA-inog tima za promjenu razine mora i programa oceanske fizike u Washingtonu.
Po njezinim riječima, to bi bila dvostruko veća količina promjena u sljedeća tri desetljeća u usporedbi s prethodnim stoljećem, stvarajući budućnost u kojoj su poplave daleko češće i katastrofalnije nego danas.
Neposredni uzrok takvog skoka je El Nino, koji je zamijenio La Ninu od 2021. do 2022., kada je razina mora porasla za oko 0,20 cm.
El Nino je prirodna vremenska pojava povezana s poremećajem obrazaca vjetra što znači toplije temperature površine oceana u istočnom i središnjem Pacifiku.
El Nino, koji se u prosjeku javlja svake dvije do sedam godina, obično traje devet do 12 mjeseci i može izazvati ekstremne vremenske pojave kao što su šumski požari, tropski cikloni i dugotrajne suše.
Za razliku od njega, La Nina je vremenski obrazac karakteriziran neuobičajeno niskim temperaturama u Tihom oceanu.
"U godinama El Nina, puno kiše koja inače padne na kopno završi u oceanu, što privremeno podiže razinu mora", rekao je Josh Willis, istraživač razine mora u NASA-inom Laboratoriju za mlazni pogon (JPL).
Ali postoji i jasan ljudski trag koji je vidljiv u ovom trendu ubrzanja.
"Dugoročni skupovi podataka poput ovog 30-godišnjeg satelitskog zapisa omogućuju nam da napravimo razliku između kratkoročnih učinaka na razinu mora, kao što je El Nino, i trendova koji nam govore kamo ide razina mora", rekao je Ben Hamlington iz JPL-a.
Tehnološke inovacije su tijekom godina donijele veću točnost mjerenja. Na primjer, radarski visinomjeri odbijaju mikrovalove od površine mora, zatim bilježe vrijeme potrebno signalu da putuje natrag do satelita, kao i snagu povratnog signala.
Također provjeravaju svoje podatke s drugim izvorima kao što su mareografi i satelitska mjerenja atmosferske vodene pare i Zemljinog gravitacijskog polja.
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Globalna prosječna razina mora porasla je za oko 0,76 centimetara od 2022. do 2023. godine, što je gotovo četiri puta više nego prethodne godine, objavila je NASA u četvrtak, pripisujući "značajan skok" snažnom fenomenu El Ninu i klimatskim promjenama.
Analiza koju je provela NASA temelji se na više od 30 godina satelitskih promatranja, s početnim lansiranjem satelita 1992., a posljednjim 2020.
Sve u svemu, razine mora porasle su za oko 10 cm od 1993. Stopa rasta također se ubrzala, više nego udvostručivši se s 0,17 cm godišnje 1993., na trenutnu stopu od 0,43 cm godišnje.
"Trenutne stope ubrzanja znače da smo na putu da dodamo još 20 centimetara globalne srednje razine mora do 2050.", rekla je Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, direktorica NASA-inog tima za promjenu razine mora i programa oceanske fizike u Washingtonu.
Po njezinim riječima, to bi bila dvostruko veća količina promjena u sljedeća tri desetljeća u usporedbi s prethodnim stoljećem, stvarajući budućnost u kojoj su poplave daleko češće i katastrofalnije nego danas.
Neposredni uzrok takvog skoka je El Nino, koji je zamijenio La Ninu od 2021. do 2022., kada je razina mora porasla za oko 0,20 cm.
El Nino je prirodna vremenska pojava povezana s poremećajem obrazaca vjetra što znači toplije temperature površine oceana u istočnom i središnjem Pacifiku.
El Nino, koji se u prosjeku javlja svake dvije do sedam godina, obično traje devet do 12 mjeseci i može izazvati ekstremne vremenske pojave kao što su šumski požari, tropski cikloni i dugotrajne suše.
Za razliku od njega, La Nina je vremenski obrazac karakteriziran neuobičajeno niskim temperaturama u Tihom oceanu.
"U godinama El Nina, puno kiše koja inače padne na kopno završi u oceanu, što privremeno podiže razinu mora", rekao je Josh Willis, istraživač razine mora u NASA-inom Laboratoriju za mlazni pogon (JPL).
Ali postoji i jasan ljudski trag koji je vidljiv u ovom trendu ubrzanja.
"Dugoročni skupovi podataka poput ovog 30-godišnjeg satelitskog zapisa omogućuju nam da napravimo razliku između kratkoročnih učinaka na razinu mora, kao što je El Nino, i trendova koji nam govore kamo ide razina mora", rekao je Ben Hamlington iz JPL-a.
Tehnološke inovacije su tijekom godina donijele veću točnost mjerenja. Na primjer, radarski visinomjeri odbijaju mikrovalove od površine mora, zatim bilježe vrijeme potrebno signalu da putuje natrag do satelita, kao i snagu povratnog signala.
Također provjeravaju svoje podatke s drugim izvorima kao što su mareografi i satelitska mjerenja atmosferske vodene pare i Zemljinog gravitacijskog polja.
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11. svibanj 2024 06:28
