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Zavaravamo se da je energetska kriza prošla, piše u ekskluzivnom izvatku uglednog Economic Intelligencea, u izdanju britanskog konzervativnog medija The Telegraph. Europa je svoju rafinerijsku ovisnost o Rusiji dodatno povećala već nakon aneksije Krima 2014. godine, jedva razmišljajući o energetskoj sigurnosti.

Ovakva politika sada jamči turbulentno iskušenje za sve europske vlade i društva jer embargo G7 na ruska rafinirana goriva stupa na snagu krajem ovog tjedna, prenosi Jutarnji list.

Bjesomučna kupnja goriva prije ovog roka osigurala je da Europa ima dovoljno zaliha da se pokrije u sljedećih nekoliko tjedana. No, kada se te zalihe iscrpe, postoje velike šanse da će Europa ili morati ograničiti dizel i druga goriva ili se suočiti s krizom opskrbe, piše Economic Intelligence.

Dizel je moguće nabaviti s Bliskog istoka, iz Indije ili Kine, ali pomorska infrastruktura nije prilagođena izvozu rafiniranih proizvoda u takvim razmjerima na tolikim udaljenostima - i po tim rutama. S druge strane, SAD neće moći popuniti jaz na način na koji je to učinio posljednjih mjeseci s ukapljenim prirodnim plinom (LNG).

Europa je preživjela plinski rat s Putinom - uz američku pomoć i sreću. Pod srećom se prvenstveno misli na blagu zimu.

Pa i takva stiska je donekle zahtijevala bolnu promjenu ponašanja i trajni gubitak neke od teške industrije.

Referentne cijene plina sada su neznatno ispod cijena prije ruske invazije. Cijene plina po megavatsatu danas iznose 55 eura - a sjetimo se panike u kasnom kolovozu kada je cijena po megavatsatu iznosila 342 eura.

Za sada ograničenje cijene zemalja G7 na rusku naftu funkcionira. Kremlj nije uspio okupiti dovoljno veliku "flotu u sjeni" da izbjegne zapadni pritisak. Kremlj ostaje bez prihoda. Ne postoji dovoljno utjecajno unutarnje tržište obveznica koje je vrijedno imena a da bi se preko isto moglo zadužiti za vrijeme rata. Proračunski deficiti počinje gušiti Putinov režim.

Međutim, nadolazeća zabrana dizela i rafiniranih proizvoda bit će ogroman teret za Europu, piše  Jutarnji list.

"Europa ima previše benzina i premalo dizela. Ta je neusklađenost na gotovo povijesnoj razini", rekao je David Fyfe, IEA-in bivši naftni guru, a sada glavni ekonomist energetske grupe Argus.

"Potrebno je uvoziti tri milijuna barela dnevno, a čak se trećina dobivala iz Rusije. Kako pronaći milijun barela dizela dnevno? E, to će biti problem. Mogli bismo doživjeti velike nestašice", kaže.

Tržište je već pod stresom. Cijene sirove nafte u Europi premašile su 45 dolara još ranije ovog mjeseca. "To je pet puta više od normalne razine", kaže Fyfe.

Ovaj nedostatak rafinerijskog kapaciteta razotkriva temeljni propust (još jedan!) u europskoj energetskoj politici i strateškom razmišljaju. Europa je aktivno poticala vozače da prijeđu na dizelske automobile putem poreznih poticaja. Postotak prodaje dizela podignuo se s 10 posto 1990. godine na oko 60 posto 2015., a onda je izašlo na vidjelo da su Volkswagen i drugi namještali testove emisije.

Ono što je izvanredno je da se Europa tako snažno kladila na dizel, a istovremeno dopuštala smanjivanje svojih rafinerijskih kapaciteta. To podsjeća na paralelnu pogrešku posljednjeg desetljeća, a tiče se zatvaranja nuklearnih elektrana, vođenja kulturnih ratova protiv bušenja nafte, plina, zabrane frackinga, itd., dok se prljavi posao proizvodnje energije prepuštao Putinovoj Rusiji.

Kremlj je uvukao Europu u ovu zamku ponudivši ruskim energetskim tvrtkama nižu poreznu stopu na rafinirane proizvode. Što sada očekivati od Putina? Hoće li krotko prihvatiti gušenje svojih energetskih prihoda‘ "Ovo je rat koji si ne može dopustiti da izgubi!", kaže direktor CIA-e Bill Burns.

Zbog svega ovoga, trebali bismo pretpostaviti da će Putin udariti baš sada kada uvjeti na energetskom tržištu krenu njemu u prilog. On je oportunistički predator, piše Economic Intelligence. Primjerice, čekao je da nije nastupila akutna globalna nestašica plina prije nego je startao s plinskim ratom još sredinom 2021.

Dizel i rafinirana goriva puno su bolji instrument geopolitičkog pritiska od plina. Rusi drže čak 6,5 posto globalnog rafinerijskog kapaciteta. Putin to može hladno i srezati i pustiti sirovu naftu da slobodno teče u Indiju, Kinu i Latinsku Ameriku na rafiniranje u njihovim postrojenjima. Tako nanosi najveću bol Europi bez veće kolateralne štete prijateljima i neutralcima.

Putinova se strategija, konačno, nije promijenila. Njegov je cilj pokrenuti ustanak europskih društava protiv vlastitih vlada prije nego njegova sposobnost vođenja rata u Ukrajini bude potkopana. Prvu rundu energetskog rata je izgubio. Ali bi Europu mogao dovući u pat poziciju već 2023. Europa će zažaliti za onim danom kada je tako nemarno pustila svoje rafinerije da propadnu, piše Jutarnji list.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with the cabinet via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on January 24, 2023. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev/SPUTNIK/AFP)

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Zavaravamo se da je energetska kriza prošla, piše u ekskluzivnom izvatku uglednog Economic Intelligencea, u izdanju britanskog konzervativnog medija The Telegraph. Europa je svoju rafinerijsku ovisnost o Rusiji dodatno povećala već nakon aneksije Krima 2014. godine, jedva razmišljajući o energetskoj sigurnosti.

Ovakva politika sada jamči turbulentno iskušenje za sve europske vlade i društva jer embargo G7 na ruska rafinirana goriva stupa na snagu krajem ovog tjedna, prenosi Jutarnji list.

Bjesomučna kupnja goriva prije ovog roka osigurala je da Europa ima dovoljno zaliha da se pokrije u sljedećih nekoliko tjedana. No, kada se te zalihe iscrpe, postoje velike šanse da će Europa ili morati ograničiti dizel i druga goriva ili se suočiti s krizom opskrbe, piše Economic Intelligence.

Dizel je moguće nabaviti s Bliskog istoka, iz Indije ili Kine, ali pomorska infrastruktura nije prilagođena izvozu rafiniranih proizvoda u takvim razmjerima na tolikim udaljenostima - i po tim rutama. S druge strane, SAD neće moći popuniti jaz na način na koji je to učinio posljednjih mjeseci s ukapljenim prirodnim plinom (LNG).

Europa je preživjela plinski rat s Putinom - uz američku pomoć i sreću. Pod srećom se prvenstveno misli na blagu zimu.

Pa i takva stiska je donekle zahtijevala bolnu promjenu ponašanja i trajni gubitak neke od teške industrije.

Referentne cijene plina sada su neznatno ispod cijena prije ruske invazije. Cijene plina po megavatsatu danas iznose 55 eura - a sjetimo se panike u kasnom kolovozu kada je cijena po megavatsatu iznosila 342 eura.

Za sada ograničenje cijene zemalja G7 na rusku naftu funkcionira. Kremlj nije uspio okupiti dovoljno veliku "flotu u sjeni" da izbjegne zapadni pritisak. Kremlj ostaje bez prihoda. Ne postoji dovoljno utjecajno unutarnje tržište obveznica koje je vrijedno imena a da bi se preko isto moglo zadužiti za vrijeme rata. Proračunski deficiti počinje gušiti Putinov režim.

Međutim, nadolazeća zabrana dizela i rafiniranih proizvoda bit će ogroman teret za Europu, piše  Jutarnji list.

"Europa ima previše benzina i premalo dizela. Ta je neusklađenost na gotovo povijesnoj razini", rekao je David Fyfe, IEA-in bivši naftni guru, a sada glavni ekonomist energetske grupe Argus.

"Potrebno je uvoziti tri milijuna barela dnevno, a čak se trećina dobivala iz Rusije. Kako pronaći milijun barela dizela dnevno? E, to će biti problem. Mogli bismo doživjeti velike nestašice", kaže.

Tržište je već pod stresom. Cijene sirove nafte u Europi premašile su 45 dolara još ranije ovog mjeseca. "To je pet puta više od normalne razine", kaže Fyfe.

Ovaj nedostatak rafinerijskog kapaciteta razotkriva temeljni propust (još jedan!) u europskoj energetskoj politici i strateškom razmišljaju. Europa je aktivno poticala vozače da prijeđu na dizelske automobile putem poreznih poticaja. Postotak prodaje dizela podignuo se s 10 posto 1990. godine na oko 60 posto 2015., a onda je izašlo na vidjelo da su Volkswagen i drugi namještali testove emisije.

Ono što je izvanredno je da se Europa tako snažno kladila na dizel, a istovremeno dopuštala smanjivanje svojih rafinerijskih kapaciteta. To podsjeća na paralelnu pogrešku posljednjeg desetljeća, a tiče se zatvaranja nuklearnih elektrana, vođenja kulturnih ratova protiv bušenja nafte, plina, zabrane frackinga, itd., dok se prljavi posao proizvodnje energije prepuštao Putinovoj Rusiji.

Kremlj je uvukao Europu u ovu zamku ponudivši ruskim energetskim tvrtkama nižu poreznu stopu na rafinirane proizvode. Što sada očekivati od Putina? Hoće li krotko prihvatiti gušenje svojih energetskih prihoda‘ "Ovo je rat koji si ne može dopustiti da izgubi!", kaže direktor CIA-e Bill Burns.

Zbog svega ovoga, trebali bismo pretpostaviti da će Putin udariti baš sada kada uvjeti na energetskom tržištu krenu njemu u prilog. On je oportunistički predator, piše Economic Intelligence. Primjerice, čekao je da nije nastupila akutna globalna nestašica plina prije nego je startao s plinskim ratom još sredinom 2021.

Dizel i rafinirana goriva puno su bolji instrument geopolitičkog pritiska od plina. Rusi drže čak 6,5 posto globalnog rafinerijskog kapaciteta. Putin to može hladno i srezati i pustiti sirovu naftu da slobodno teče u Indiju, Kinu i Latinsku Ameriku na rafiniranje u njihovim postrojenjima. Tako nanosi najveću bol Europi bez veće kolateralne štete prijateljima i neutralcima.

Putinova se strategija, konačno, nije promijenila. Njegov je cilj pokrenuti ustanak europskih društava protiv vlastitih vlada prije nego njegova sposobnost vođenja rata u Ukrajini bude potkopana. Prvu rundu energetskog rata je izgubio. Ali bi Europu mogao dovući u pat poziciju već 2023. Europa će zažaliti za onim danom kada je tako nemarno pustila svoje rafinerije da propadnu, piše Jutarnji list.

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Mikhail Klimentyev/Afp Nikolay Doychinov/Afp Natalia Kolesnikova/Afp Mikhail Klimentyev/Afp
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Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with the cabinet via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on January 24, 2023. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev/SPUTNIK/AFP)
Nikolay Doychinov/Afp

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Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with the cabinet via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on January 24, 2023. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev/SPUTNIK/AFP)
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StoryEditorOCM
Hrvatska i svijetKriza opskrbe

Energenti su i dalje jaki aduti u Putinovim rukama: Hoće li Europa uskoro ostati bez jedne vrste goriva?

Piše dv
1. veljače 2023. - 00:01
&lt;p&gt;Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with the cabinet via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on January 24, 2023. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev/SPUTNIK/AFP)&lt;/p&gt;
Galerija
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with the cabinet via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on January 24, 2023. (Photo by Mikhail Klimentyev/SPUTNIK/AFP)Mikhail Klimentyev/Afp

Zavaravamo se da je energetska kriza prošla, piše u ekskluzivnom izvatku uglednog Economic Intelligencea, u izdanju britanskog konzervativnog medija The Telegraph. Europa je svoju rafinerijsku ovisnost o Rusiji dodatno povećala već nakon aneksije Krima 2014. godine, jedva razmišljajući o energetskoj sigurnosti.

Ovakva politika sada jamči turbulentno iskušenje za sve europske vlade i društva jer embargo G7 na ruska rafinirana goriva stupa na snagu krajem ovog tjedna, prenosi Jutarnji list.

Bjesomučna kupnja goriva prije ovog roka osigurala je da Europa ima dovoljno zaliha da se pokrije u sljedećih nekoliko tjedana. No, kada se te zalihe iscrpe, postoje velike šanse da će Europa ili morati ograničiti dizel i druga goriva ili se suočiti s krizom opskrbe, piše Economic Intelligence.

Dizel je moguće nabaviti s Bliskog istoka, iz Indije ili Kine, ali pomorska infrastruktura nije prilagođena izvozu rafiniranih proizvoda u takvim razmjerima na tolikim udaljenostima - i po tim rutama. S druge strane, SAD neće moći popuniti jaz na način na koji je to učinio posljednjih mjeseci s ukapljenim prirodnim plinom (LNG).

Europa je preživjela plinski rat s Putinom - uz američku pomoć i sreću. Pod srećom se prvenstveno misli na blagu zimu.

Pa i takva stiska je donekle zahtijevala bolnu promjenu ponašanja i trajni gubitak neke od teške industrije.

Referentne cijene plina sada su neznatno ispod cijena prije ruske invazije. Cijene plina po megavatsatu danas iznose 55 eura - a sjetimo se panike u kasnom kolovozu kada je cijena po megavatsatu iznosila 342 eura.

Za sada ograničenje cijene zemalja G7 na rusku naftu funkcionira. Kremlj nije uspio okupiti dovoljno veliku "flotu u sjeni" da izbjegne zapadni pritisak. Kremlj ostaje bez prihoda. Ne postoji dovoljno utjecajno unutarnje tržište obveznica koje je vrijedno imena a da bi se preko isto moglo zadužiti za vrijeme rata. Proračunski deficiti počinje gušiti Putinov režim.

Međutim, nadolazeća zabrana dizela i rafiniranih proizvoda bit će ogroman teret za Europu, piše  Jutarnji list.

"Europa ima previše benzina i premalo dizela. Ta je neusklađenost na gotovo povijesnoj razini", rekao je David Fyfe, IEA-in bivši naftni guru, a sada glavni ekonomist energetske grupe Argus.

"Potrebno je uvoziti tri milijuna barela dnevno, a čak se trećina dobivala iz Rusije. Kako pronaći milijun barela dizela dnevno? E, to će biti problem. Mogli bismo doživjeti velike nestašice", kaže.

Tržište je već pod stresom. Cijene sirove nafte u Europi premašile su 45 dolara još ranije ovog mjeseca. "To je pet puta više od normalne razine", kaže Fyfe.

Ovaj nedostatak rafinerijskog kapaciteta razotkriva temeljni propust (još jedan!) u europskoj energetskoj politici i strateškom razmišljaju. Europa je aktivno poticala vozače da prijeđu na dizelske automobile putem poreznih poticaja. Postotak prodaje dizela podignuo se s 10 posto 1990. godine na oko 60 posto 2015., a onda je izašlo na vidjelo da su Volkswagen i drugi namještali testove emisije.

Ono što je izvanredno je da se Europa tako snažno kladila na dizel, a istovremeno dopuštala smanjivanje svojih rafinerijskih kapaciteta. To podsjeća na paralelnu pogrešku posljednjeg desetljeća, a tiče se zatvaranja nuklearnih elektrana, vođenja kulturnih ratova protiv bušenja nafte, plina, zabrane frackinga, itd., dok se prljavi posao proizvodnje energije prepuštao Putinovoj Rusiji.

Kremlj je uvukao Europu u ovu zamku ponudivši ruskim energetskim tvrtkama nižu poreznu stopu na rafinirane proizvode. Što sada očekivati od Putina? Hoće li krotko prihvatiti gušenje svojih energetskih prihoda‘ "Ovo je rat koji si ne može dopustiti da izgubi!", kaže direktor CIA-e Bill Burns.

Zbog svega ovoga, trebali bismo pretpostaviti da će Putin udariti baš sada kada uvjeti na energetskom tržištu krenu njemu u prilog. On je oportunistički predator, piše Economic Intelligence. Primjerice, čekao je da nije nastupila akutna globalna nestašica plina prije nego je startao s plinskim ratom još sredinom 2021.

Dizel i rafinirana goriva puno su bolji instrument geopolitičkog pritiska od plina. Rusi drže čak 6,5 posto globalnog rafinerijskog kapaciteta. Putin to može hladno i srezati i pustiti sirovu naftu da slobodno teče u Indiju, Kinu i Latinsku Ameriku na rafiniranje u njihovim postrojenjima. Tako nanosi najveću bol Europi bez veće kolateralne štete prijateljima i neutralcima.

Putinova se strategija, konačno, nije promijenila. Njegov je cilj pokrenuti ustanak europskih društava protiv vlastitih vlada prije nego njegova sposobnost vođenja rata u Ukrajini bude potkopana. Prvu rundu energetskog rata je izgubio. Ali bi Europu mogao dovući u pat poziciju već 2023. Europa će zažaliti za onim danom kada je tako nemarno pustila svoje rafinerije da propadnu, piše Jutarnji list.

#ENERGETSKI RAT#RAT U UKRAJINI #SANKCIJE RUSIJI#OPSKRBA GORIVOM#VLADIMIR PUTIN
11. svibanj 2024 19:19