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[title] => Cijena nafte na londonskom je tržištu ostala nepromijenjena, dok je na američkom pala već drugi tjedan zaredom
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Na londonskom je tržištu cijena nafte prošloga tjedna ostala nepromijenjena, dok je na američkom pala drugi tjedna zaredom jer se trgovci plaše da će povećanje kamata zbog visoke inflacije izazvati usporavanje rasta svjetskog gospodarstva, a time i potražnje za naftom.
Cijena barela na londonskom tržištu iznosila je u petak 113,12 dolara, isto kao i tjedan dana prije, dok je na američkom tržištu barel na tjednoj razini pojeftinio 1,8 posto, na 107,62 dolara.
Veći dio tjedna cijene su nafte bile pod pritiskom jer je među trgovcima prevladao strah da bi podizanje ključnih kamatnih stopa američke središnje banke moglo gurnuti najveće gospodarstvo svijeta u recesiju i tako oslabiti potražnju za gorivima.
Fed je od ožujka oštro povećao kamatne stope kako bi spustio inflaciju s najviših razina u 40 godina, a očekuju se i daljnja povećanja.
Na tržištu novca sada se procjenjuje da bi Fed do ožujka iduće godine mogao povećati ključnu kamatu sa sadašnjih 1,75 na 3,5 posto.
A svi posljednji podaci pokazuju da se rast američkog gospodarstva usporava. Ostaje otvoreno pitanje hoće li Fed uspjeti 'mekano' prizemljiti gospodarstvo ili slijedi recesija.
Prošloga je tjedna u izvješću Kongresu predsjednik Feda Jerome Powell kazao da je središnja banka predana tomu da spusti inflaciju na ciljanih 2 posto i održi snažno tržište rada.
Poručio je da vjeruje da je gospodarstvo dovoljno snažno da izdrži povećanje kamata, ali je priznao i da postoji mogućnost recesije.
Podršku cijenama, s druge strane, pruža slabost ponude.
"Kada se stave na stranu bojazni od recesije... nagli rast rafinerijskih marži i dalje signalizira ekstremno izjednačenu ponudu i potražnju na tržištima naftnim proizvodima", ističu analitičari u japanskoj banci MUFG.
I dok su veći dio tjedna bile pod pritiskom, na kraju tjedna cijene su nafte znatno porasle i nadoknadile gubitke zbog slabosti opskrbe.
Libija je, naime, gotovo potpuno obustavila proizvodnju zbog nemira.
S druge strane, potražnja će u ljetnim mjesecima biti snažna, što ograničava silazni trend cijena, objašnjava Stephen Brennock iz brokerske kuće PVM.
Nakon što su u prošloj godini porasle više od 50 posto, zahvaljujući oporavku svjetskog gospodarstva od koronakrize, od početka ove godine cijene su nafte, ponajviše zbog rata u Ukrajini, skočile gotovo 50 posto.
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Na londonskom je tržištu cijena nafte prošloga tjedna ostala nepromijenjena, dok je na američkom pala drugi tjedna zaredom jer se trgovci plaše da će povećanje kamata zbog visoke inflacije izazvati usporavanje rasta svjetskog gospodarstva, a time i potražnje za naftom.
Cijena barela na londonskom tržištu iznosila je u petak 113,12 dolara, isto kao i tjedan dana prije, dok je na američkom tržištu barel na tjednoj razini pojeftinio 1,8 posto, na 107,62 dolara.
Veći dio tjedna cijene su nafte bile pod pritiskom jer je među trgovcima prevladao strah da bi podizanje ključnih kamatnih stopa američke središnje banke moglo gurnuti najveće gospodarstvo svijeta u recesiju i tako oslabiti potražnju za gorivima.
Fed je od ožujka oštro povećao kamatne stope kako bi spustio inflaciju s najviših razina u 40 godina, a očekuju se i daljnja povećanja.
Na tržištu novca sada se procjenjuje da bi Fed do ožujka iduće godine mogao povećati ključnu kamatu sa sadašnjih 1,75 na 3,5 posto.
A svi posljednji podaci pokazuju da se rast američkog gospodarstva usporava. Ostaje otvoreno pitanje hoće li Fed uspjeti 'mekano' prizemljiti gospodarstvo ili slijedi recesija.
Prošloga je tjedna u izvješću Kongresu predsjednik Feda Jerome Powell kazao da je središnja banka predana tomu da spusti inflaciju na ciljanih 2 posto i održi snažno tržište rada.
Poručio je da vjeruje da je gospodarstvo dovoljno snažno da izdrži povećanje kamata, ali je priznao i da postoji mogućnost recesije.
Podršku cijenama, s druge strane, pruža slabost ponude.
"Kada se stave na stranu bojazni od recesije... nagli rast rafinerijskih marži i dalje signalizira ekstremno izjednačenu ponudu i potražnju na tržištima naftnim proizvodima", ističu analitičari u japanskoj banci MUFG.
I dok su veći dio tjedna bile pod pritiskom, na kraju tjedna cijene su nafte znatno porasle i nadoknadile gubitke zbog slabosti opskrbe.
Libija je, naime, gotovo potpuno obustavila proizvodnju zbog nemira.
S druge strane, potražnja će u ljetnim mjesecima biti snažna, što ograničava silazni trend cijena, objašnjava Stephen Brennock iz brokerske kuće PVM.
Nakon što su u prošloj godini porasle više od 50 posto, zahvaljujući oporavku svjetskog gospodarstva od koronakrize, od početka ove godine cijene su nafte, ponajviše zbog rata u Ukrajini, skočile gotovo 50 posto.
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15. svibanj 2024 05:57
